”UN climate scientists said in a key report for policymakers on Saturday that they could no longer put an upper limit on the potential rise in sea levels over the next century.”
として記事にしています。
”But these projections did not take into detailed account the impact of any significant loss of land ice in Greenland and the West Antarctic, the IPCC acknowledged on Saturday. It therefore scrapped the upper band.
"It became apparent that, concerning the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, we really don't know enough," IPCC Chairman Rajendra Pachauri told AFP on Saturday in Valencia, Spain, where the body on Saturday published its keenly awaited report.
"There is a possibility, and a fair amount of literature, which suggests that it could be faster than what one has anticipated. Given the uncertainty, it was prudent, and scientifically correct, to remove the upper boundary," he said.”
ということで、海面上昇の予測の上限値は今回撤廃されているもようです。
公表された報告書をみてみると、
http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf#page=8
の、
Table SPM.1. Projected global averaged surface warming and sea level rise at the end of the 21st century. {Table 3.1}の紹介をしている段落より
”Because understanding of some important effects driving sea level rise is too limited, this report does not assess the likelihood, nor provide a best estimate or an upper bound for sea level rise. Table SPM.1 shows model-based projections of global average sea level rise for 2090-2099.(10)
The projections do not include uncertainties in climate-carbon cycle feedbacks nor the full effects of changes in ice sheet flow, therefore the upper values of the ranges are not to be considered upper bounds for sea level rise. They include a contribution from increased Greenland and Antarctic ice flow at the rates observed for 1993-2003, but this could increase or decrease in the future.11 {3.2.1}”
となっていますが、これは2月の第一作業部会のレポートの中と同じ文言のように見えますので?どういうことかまだよく分かりません。
「地球温暖化問題の歪曲(前編)」in田中宇の国際ニュース解説についてその2
http://www.janjanblog.jp/user/stopglobalwarming/stopglobalwarming/321.html
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ニューサイエンティスト誌の今年(2005年)2月15日付けの記事"Hotly contested"
http://www.newscientist.com/article.ns?id=mg18524861.600
によると、太陽活動の何かの指数と気温との相関について示して、温暖化CO2説への異議を1991年に唱えたのはデンマークのKnud LassenとFriis-Christensenでしたが、
> But more recent data has convinced Lassen that solar activity cannot explain
> recent events. Sunspot activity since 1980 suggests that temperatures should
> have been stable or declining; in fact there has been a 0.4 °C rise. That
> interpretation puts him in line with mainstream climate researchers.
と、二人の内の少なくともKnud Lassenの方は、太陽活動のみでは1980年以降の最新の気温上昇を説明できないことを認めているということです。
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