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USA TODAY でアメリカをよむコミュのMcCain, Clinton rebound; contest remains wide open in both parties

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http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/election2008/2008-01-08-new-hampshire_N.htm

デーブスぺクターがアイオワは日本でいうと島根といっておりました。
ニューハンプシャーは茨城だと

NASHUA, N.H. — On a night of stunning political rebounds, Democratic presidential hopeful Hillary Rodham Clinton, embattled after last week's loss in Iowa, narrowly defeated Barack Obama in the New Hampshire primary Tuesday. Among Republicans, John McCain, trailing far behind months ago, decisively beat the better-funded, better-organized Mitt Romney.


The results signal that contests in both parties are far from settled despite predictions that a compressed primary calendar would force a quick decision.

今後の予想がつかないという意味でfar from settled という表現は覚えときたい

Political analyst Charles Cook called McCain's victory "the greatest comeback since Lazarus" and attributes it to "an enormous vacuum in the Republican Party."

With former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee the winner in Iowa and McCain in New Hampshire — and former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani still hopeful about winning Florida's primary on Jan. 29 — "we may be settling in for a long haul on the Republican side," Cook said.

The Democratic contest, which seemed to be heading Obama's way after his decisive win in Iowa last week, also may take a while to resolve because the results in New Hampshire are likely to give Clinton new momentum.

"Over the last week I listened to you; in the process I found my own voice," Clinton told cheering supporters. "Now together let's give America the kind of comeback that New Hampshire has just given me."

Hillary Clinton had finished a disappointing third in Iowa, behind Obama and John Edwards, who finished third in New Hampshire. Clinton also had trailed in the USA TODAY/Gallup Poll and every other statewide New Hampshire survey released in the last few days. Former president Bill Clinton complained bitterly that the primary schedule and the news media had treated her unfairly.

But she won with a surge of support from women voters while Obama easily carried men, according to surveys of voters as they left polling places conducted for the Associated Press and the television networks. Clinton's defiant performance in a televised debate Saturday and a show of emotion at a campaign appearance on Monday may have turned around a race even her supporters feared she was about to lose decisively.

Mallory Parkington, 32, of Concord, took her 5-month-old daughter Kerris with her to vote for Clinton. Parkington had been on the fence between Clinton and Obama, but she said she was moved by news reports of Clinton near tears Monday as she described her feelings about the election.

"She seemed a lot more real at that moment," she said. "It just made me decide to vote for her. They're pretty close on the issues."

The New Hampshire results set up the next set of contests as critical. The Jan. 19 Republican primary in South Carolina, known for its rough-and-tumble politics, looms as a showdown between McCain and the winner in Iowa, former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee.

The Democrats will face off in the Nevada caucuses on Jan. 19 and the South Carolina primary on Jan. 26, where the votes of African-Americans are likely to be decisive.

"It's moving very quickly and it seems like Feb. 5 is a long time away," says Lee Miringoff, director of the New York-based Marist Poll. He says momentum from New Hampshire and the next few states could reshape later contests including California and New Jersey, among 22 states scheduled to vote on Feb. 5.

The loss apparently surprised Obama, who sounded confident in an interview with USA TODAY on Tuesday before the first returns were counted. "We're changing the political map right now," he said. "The question is whether we can sustain it."

Obama said he saw his campaign as "a vindication of my faith in the American voters." When pressed about what that meant, he cited his faith in Americans of all ages and political persuasions to show up at the polls for him. "We are building a new majority," he said.

When he spoke to his supporters last night, Obama said, "We know the battle ahead will be long. … but nothing can stand in the way of millions calling for change." The crowd chanted, "Yes, we can!"

'Mac is back!'

McCain has been predicting a win in New Hampshire for days, too, and he was elated at a victory celebration for his supporters in Nashua.

"My friends, I am past the age when I can claim the noun, 'kid,' no matter what adjective precedes it," he said. "But tonight we sure showed them what a comeback looks like."

That was an echo of Bill Clinton in 1992, who dubbed himself the "comeback kid" when a second-place finish in New Hampshire revived his political hopes after scandals over his personal behavior roiled his campaign.

McCain's campaign has been a rollercoaster, from the presumed frontrunner at the beginning of 2007 to derided as a loser when he was nearly out of money and lost his top staff in the summer. He responded by returning to New Hampshire, where he scored a double-digit victory over George W. Bush in 2000, and revived the "Straight Talk Express" bus tour of town-hall meetings across the state.

"John McCain is a warrior," says South Carolina Republican chairman Katon Dawson, who is neutral in the contest. "There just isn't a lot of quit in John McCain."

The question is whether this victory enables McCain to raise the funds and build an organization for the states that follow.

The loss was a serious setback for Romney, who used millions from his own fortune to help finance the biggest organization and the most TV ads. As the former governor of neighboring Massachusetts and the owner of a lakeside home in New Hampshire, he had run almost as a favorite son.

Still, Romney put a determinedly positive spin on his second-place finish. "Another silver," said the former head of the Winter Olympics in Salt Lake City in 2002. "There are been three races so far. I've gotten two silvers and one gold. Thank you, Wyoming." The state's caucuses, which most candidates ignored, were Saturday.

He offered McCain congratulations and said he "out-competed us."

But Romney called himself the best able to fix a Washington he said was too "broken" to deal with such challenges as illegal immigration and U.S. dependence on foreign oil. He insisted he was in the race to stay in "to Michigan and South Carolina and Florida and Nevada and states after that."

He is targeting in particular the Michigan primary on Jan. 15, where he was born and his father served as governor.

Huckabee finished a distant third in the GOP race — he called that a victory, too, based on his low expectations here — trailed by Texas Rep. Ron Paul, Guiliani and former Tennessee senator Fred Thompson. Thompson, in single digits, said he would fight on in South Carolina. Giuliani said he remained focused on Florida.

In past Republican races, South Carolinians have tended to ratify the perceived front-runners and send them on to the nomination: Ronald Reagan in 1980, George H.W. Bush in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, and George W. Bush in 2000. "In 28 years, if you won here, you won the nomination," Dawson said.

There is no such frontrunner this time. "We've got a wide open race coming here," he said.

The Democratic race

The Democratic race doesn't have a clear frontrunner now, either, with Obama and Clinton each able to claim a crucial win.

Clinton won in New Hampshire by tapping into the Democrat's blue-collar roots, carrying voters with no more than a high school education and those with incomes below $50,000 a year. Obama carried better-educated voters and those who were independents.

Still, the road ahead is tough. Surveys of voters leaving the polls here showed Clinton losing to Obama among moderates, independents and first-time primary voters. He beat her 2-to-1 on who could best unite the country and came close to her on "most qualified to be commander in chief."

Pollster Anna Greenberg says voters under 30 are 17% of the electorate, almost as big a chunk as the 20% who are seniors. Clinton's claim of being a "seasoned veteran" doesn't suit many of them. "They like outsider candidates, truth-teller candidates," says Greenberg, and have gone in the past for independent or third-party candidates such as Jesse Ventura, Ralph Nader and Ross Perot.

New Hampshire was staggering from job losses when Bill Clinton ran in 1992. "Under his administration things got so much better. People remember that. He's very popular," says Kathy Sullivan, a former party chairman who co-chaired Hillary Clinton's campaign here. "The '90s weren't bad. The '90s were pretty good. Eight years of peace and prosperity was a pretty good thing."

Some voters worry that Obama's idealistic goals — ending the war in Iraq, creating a new green economy and providing health insurance for all Americans — will founder on the shoals of Washington politics. "We don't want another Jimmy Carter," said Larry McCoy of Amherst, N.H., said as he waited in line for a Clinton rally. "He was a bright guy, too. He was a fresh face. Everybody went for him after Nixon. But he didn't know how things worked."

Edwards congratulated his rivals but said he would continue the battle after Iowa and New Hampshire. "Forty-eight states left to go," he said.

Desire for change

On an unseasonably balmy day, a record number of people voted in the nation's first primary.

The exit polls of voters showed deep-seated distress among voters in both parties.

Voters expressed nervousness about the economy and concern about the Iraq war. Among Democratic voters, 30% said they were dissatisfied with the Bush administration and another 62% said they were angry. Even half of Republicans expressed negative views about the Bush White House.

The message of change was strong among some voters. June Charron, an independent, said she voted for Barack Obama because she believes the Illinois senator represents a sharp departure from the politics of the last 25 years. " I think he's very honest," said Charron, 79, of Nashua. "We need a dramatic change."

William Barry, 43, said he voted for John Edwards because the former North Carolina senator's 2008 campaign message is even stronger than the one he used in 2004. "I like what he had to say then, and I like how he has matured as a person and as a candidate. What validates him for me is how the other candidates have co-opted his idea of change.

Contributing: Kathy Kiely, Jill Lawrence, Martha Moore, Gannett News Service and Thomas Beaumont of

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