ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会コミュのSecurity Dynamics in the Red and Mediterranean Seas

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Your Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, welcome to Sunday morning, 21 November, Manama Dialogue, fifth and sixth plenary sessions. I would like to begin by thanking very much, on behalf of all the key delegates, ministers and national security advisers who were present, His Majesty King Hamad for having hosted last night a really splendid dinner at the palace, which advanced defence diplomacy and collegiality amongst all of our diverse participants. It is also with great pleasure that I thank the royal protocol, the Bahrain Defence Force and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs for assisting us in organising that event so smoothly. Yesterday, when I mentioned that we had representatives from 40 countries and more than 350 delegates, I might have added that we also have representatives from North America, the Middle East, Europe, Asia and Africa. This morning, we have a very diverse panel that demonstrates the variety of regions with which the Middle East is necessarily engaged. This fifth plenary session is titled Security Dynamics in the Red and Mediterranean Seas, and the reason we chose that is that, both in the Red Sea and the Eastern Mediterranean, there is a variety of different interests that countries of the Middle East and, specifically, in the Gulf have in these two seas and we thought it was important, given that our broad theme was multilateralism in the Middle East, but our subtext was the growth of minilateral arrangements within a variety of regions, that we should look at these two seas, as it were. For that, we are delighted to have with us four splendid speakers: Foreign Minister of Greece Nikolaos Dendias; Dr Ahmad Awad Bin Mubarak, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Yemen; Eugene Wamalwa, the Cabinet Secretary for Defence of Kenya; and coming also, as it happens, from Nairobi, because she is based there, Dr Annette Weber, who is the EU Special Representative for the Horn of Africa, representing Europe’s External Action Service in Kenya. Without further delay, I will ask each of them, in the order that I have introduced them, to say a few words from the lectern and, as was the case yesterday, we will then have a dialogue with our delegates. Nikolaos Dendias, Foreign Minister of Greece.

3:21

Nikolaos Dendias, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Greece

Good morning, everybody. Doctor, thank you so much for really giving me the floor, and I took the hint – just a few words – so I will follow your advice. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to thank the Kingdom of Bahrain and IISS for allowing me to have this first participation at the Manama Dialogue, a very important venue, if I may say so. Well, you all know that there is a dominant inclination to view the Middle East region through geopolitical lenses and I cannot be the exception to that. This is a region that constitutes a crossroads of civilisations, religions and political interests. It is also a region affected by many ongoing conflicts, locally generated, but also crossing borders. Libya, Syria, Yemen, dear colleagues, are clear-cut paradigms of the multiplying and increasingly intersecting issues the region faces. Apart from the impact on regional security and stability, they have also severe consequences on the wider area. Among others, they create conditions for the growth of two greatly destabilising factors: migration and terrorism. So, is there any chance we can escape from this vicious circle of violence, insecurity and instability?

My answer to this rhetorical question is an affirmative one: yes, we can. There is an alternative vision for this region. There is a vision that embraces rich diversity and our unique historical heritage, one that is based on the common ground of our shared interests. We, Greece, firmly believe in peaceful coexistence and cooperation among all countries of the region, and, of course, this has to be based on the respect for international law, including the Law of the Sea and the United Nations Charter. This is the solid basis for good neighbourly relations. Guided by these principles, my country is contributing to regional stability and prosperity through three interconnected paths. First, we have successfully addressed bilateral issues with all our neighbours, with the exception of one, on the basis of international law. In the space of one year, we have concluded international agreements on the limitation of our respective sea zones with Italy, our partners in the European Union and Egypt, and also, we have agreed to defer to the International Court of Justice in The Hague on our differences with Albania. Our goal is to address all such pending issues taking as a basis the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea and, more broadly, international law. Second, we are building regional cooperation schemes along with Cyprus and other countries of the region. Just 48 hours ago, I hosted a quadrilateral meeting with the participation of my counterparts from Cyprus, Egypt and France in Athens. Last February, I had the honour to host the above-mentioned countries along with three Gulf states, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), under the name of ‘Philia Forum’. ‘Philia’ in Greek means ‘friendship’, so this is the friendship between the Middle East and Europe. These cooperation schemes serve the goal of promoting peace, stability and prosperity and they have the potential, from the Gulf, to be extended to the area of the Indo-Pacific. We seek to tackle together regional challenges and share our views. We also seek joint actions in order to address global challenges such as coping with the COVID-19 pandemic. Addressing the effects of climate change and environmental degradation is a huge challenge for all of us. Last but not least, we have to manage water shortages. Please allow me to clarify here, as I do quite often, that these multilateral schemes are not exclusive clubs. They are open to whoever shares our values and principles, that is, the respect of international law and the international Law of the Sea. The third path we are following is that we have taken substantial steps in building bilateral relations with the countries in the region as well as the regional organisations. In the last couple of years, the government of Greece has invested politically in the Gulf. The Gulf is, after all, part of our broader neighbourhood and we are advocating for that in the European Union, because you realise that sometimes, if you are sitting in Brussels, our area seems rather far away. Last year, Greece signed an agreement on foreign-policy and defence cooperation with the UAE, an agreement that also contains a mutual-assistance clause. We have recently deployed a battery of Patriot missiles in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. Again, Patriot missiles are a purely defensive weapon, as I am sure you know, and our goal is to help the kingdom cope with external threats, especially attacks against civilians. In addition, we have signed an agreement on political consultations with the Gulf Cooperation Council and I have met the Secretary-General, if I remember well, at least three times this year, and probably we will be meeting a fourth time right here in Bahrain, so that speaks for itself. Last but not least, I, personally, have visited almost all the Gulf countries.

We remain committed to building on the foundations I have just laid out. Hopefully, this can lay the ground for a broader breakthrough towards conflict resolution. Let us say clearly: the road ahead is definitely long, has many obstacles, but we can work towards a better future based on our shared principles and our shared values. Thank you so much.

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Minister of Foreign Affairs Dendias, thank you very much for giving us an outline of what is essentially Greece’s Gulf strategy and also reminding your colleagues in the European Union that the Gulf is also a near neighbour of the European Union. It raises, at least in my mind, the question of whether the EU, having developed an Indo-Pacific strategy, might seek one day to develop guidelines for the Gulf as well as part of its external action, but we will leave that to the debate to discuss.

12:24 アラビア語から英語に同通

Dr Ahmad Awad Bin Mubarak, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen

In the name of God, Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, please allow me at the outset to extend my thanks and appreciation to the Kingdom of Bahrain for the generous hospitality and welcome. I would like to thank my brother, His Excellency Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and his wonderful team, in addition to the International Institute for Strategic Studies for the good organisation of this important conference through which we look forward to presenting a clear picture of the security challenges facing the region and Yemen and to benefit from the visions and ideas of the participants in this conference. The war in Yemen is about to complete its seventh year since the Houthi militia launched it against the Yemeni people following the coup against the legitimate authority. This war is dangerous not only because the Houthi militia is trying to seize power, but it is also seeking to change the nature of Yemeni society, to derail its future and that of the region through recruiting children on a large scale, indoctrinating young people to incite violence, perpetrate conflict and spread hatred between the inhabitants of the same country and towards the others who are intellectually different. In addition, they are trying to spread ignorance in the community to make it easier to control, and they are working on impoverishing it and exploiting its needs to recruit it in wars. All of this provided a fertile environment for making Yemen one of the pillars of Iran’s expansionist strategy in the region. The Iranian project is now clear. Its militias are surrounding the Arabian Peninsula. Armed with qualitative military capabilities, the danger has widened. There is no doubt that the failure of the Iranian project in Yemen will ensure the failure of the Iranian project in the entire region. Its success in Yemen will usher in a new phase of conflict and lead to another cycle of violence and chaos. In my speech, I will try to clarify where we stand today and what our vision is for achieving peace in Yemen. Excellencies, the Marib Governorate is considered, at this stage of the war, the focus of attention of those who follow the Yemeni issue. Since last November, the Houthi militia has launched a continuous attack against the Marib Governorate. Such an attack is loaded with grudges that are no less important than the illusion that the militia bears the possibility of militarily seizing the governorate and the greater illusion of controlling Yemen with violence, terrorism and military force. The Marib Governorate, with its historic importance, has gained today a national and strategic importance. Many might have forgotten that this governorate defeated the Houthis, in 2015, with modest combat capabilities compared to what it has today, with a population of no more than 350,000 people. It is more capable today. It has become a haven for Yemenis of various social and political affiliations, with a population of four million people among which two million are internally displaced persons (IDPs). This population is supportive of an army having a national creed and a firm and unbreakable will to end the Houthi project. Despite this, it is necessary to point out that there are miscalculations on the part of some stakeholders who have started talking about the post-Marib scenario. If we have a discussion about such a scenario that is unrealistic for us, we will undoubtedly say that if the Houthis control Marib, it will be as bad as when its historically famous dam was destroyed. Today, Marib is the impenetrable wall for Yemen. It has become one of the most strategic priorities of the Iranian regime and its proxies in the region. The fall of Marib will not only lead to a horrific humanitarian situation, it will also mark the end of the political and peace process in Yemen. It will put an end to efforts being made to restore security and stability. Chaos will prevail; more violence, internal strife and waves of migration will follow. It will be the beginning of a long-term state of instability that might lead to other wars being waged from Yemen towards the rest of the region. Ladies and gentlemen, our vision and approach in the Yemeni government is the following. There is no alternative to peace in Yemen. Any just, comprehensive and sustainable peace must address the political roots of the war, represented by the attempt by the Houthi militia to impose its control and hegemony by force on Yemen. Despite the destructive Iranian intervention in Yemen, despite its military support for the Houthi militia and its financing of its war machine, treating the war in Yemen as a regional proxy war is a misconception that should be corrected. No peace settlement in Yemen can be successful without Yemenis agreeing on solving their internal problems in accordance with the outcomes of the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference and the equitable distribution of power and wealth. However, at the same time, it would be wrong to neglect the geostrategic dimension of Iranian interference in Yemen and Iran’s desire to get closer to the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Such a thing will give Iran strategic added value in the conflict and will increase regional and international competition. It goes without saying that Iranian investment in the Houthi movement started early and increased at the beginning of the second millennium. The seizure of the Iranian ships Jihan 1 and Jihan 2 on their way to the Houthis in 2012 (i.e., three years before the war) by the US Navy, while carrying weapons and missiles, proves that. It allows us, in fact, to answer those who claim that the current war is the reason behind the Iranian intervention in Yemen. Among the misconceptions, we can also mention that Houthis reject peace whenever they advance militarily on the ground. In fact, they reject peace as a strategic principle whether they are advancing or retreating militarily, and they deal with peace as a tactic within their military strategy. We have dozens of evidence about that. The clearest is probably the Stockholm Agreement, which was accepted by the Houthi militia in December 2018 without implementing any of its provisions, then it turned against it and completely revoked it in full view of the international community. Understanding this fact helps us to understand the appropriate approach to achieving peace with a group that does not base its calculations on facts, but rather on a theocratic thought based on the illusion of claiming the divine right to rule. This is the severe obstacle that has thwarted all that was agreed upon in all peace rounds, starting from Geneva to Kuwait and even Stockholm. If we take into account this clear fact, we can say that the most important test for the Houthi militia, a test that it constantly rejects, is accepting a comprehensive ceasefire as the most important humanitarian step to be taken, so that all other humanitarian issues can be addressed before going to negotiations to find a comprehensive political solution. We believe that the cohesion and union of all moderate political powers opposing the Iranian project in Yemen is the first requirement to impose a new reality on the ground that pushes towards achieving a political settlement, so that the Riyadh Agreement can be completed and implemented in addition to the security and military annex, because they constitute an essential pillar for achieving peace and security.

The regional and international support for the Yemeni government in overcoming the economic challenges facing it in addressing the economic situation and strengthening partnerships in the political, economic and humanitarian aspects pertaining to the Yemini crisis will, no doubt, enable the government to maintain a moderate Yemen. A Yemen that shares with the world common humanitarian values and principles. We know the importance of continued and concerted efforts and coordination between countries of the region and the world to put pressure on Iran to stop its subversive activities in Yemen, so that the Middle East enjoys security, peace and stability. Excellencies, achieving peace in our country is enough to curb the militias and to address all the problems and issues they have caused in Yemeni society. This is why we need to deal flexibly with all initiatives and endeavours aimed at achieving peace in line with our national principles, the Gulf initiative and its executive mechanism, the outcomes of the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference and Security Council Resolution 2216, to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace, to restore security and stability in Yemen. Please allow me, in conclusion, to refer to the catastrophic environmental danger that everyone is expecting without, in fact, making any real effort to avoid it. The leakage of more than one million barrels of crude oil stored for seven years in the oil tanker Safer is a real disaster that will destroy the marine environment of Yemen and the region, especially the Red Sea and the Red Sea areas. The Houthis are still holding the tanker hostage. They are refusing to allow the UN team to maintain it. In conclusion, I wish you success in this conference. I hope that you will come up with visions and ideas that help confront security challenges in the region and the world. Thank you.

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS

Foreign Minister, thank you very much for underscoring the strategic importance of Marib and for reminding us of the enormous environmental disaster that awaits us if the Safer is not properly secured. I am sure, in discussion, we will also want to examine what the various reasons might be for the stalling of the peace process and whether divisions within the Houthi leadership are an important component of that, or whether there are other reasons that can be ascribed to that failure.
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