ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会コミュのIISS Manama Dialogue 2021: Changing Multilateralism and Regional Security

Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS
Ladies and gentlemen, I would invite you all to take your seats and those who are hesitating around the　doors to come through the doors and find a seat. You will enjoy it very much if you are able to come, because we have four superb speakers for this fourth plenary, all of whom have made very serious efforts to be with us through to and including this afternoon and early evening.
The overall theme of the Manama Dialogue this year is Multilateralism in the Middle East. There has been a little bit of talk about minilateralism in the Middle East given the proliferation of what the Chinese might call‘small circles’, trilateral, quad, other arrangements, certainly in the Indo-Pacific, but increasingly also in the various component parts of the Middle East, as there has been an appreciation that very large　institutions are sometimes difficult to manage and, as I mentioned last night, strategic autonomy too difficult to achieve. Therefore, ad hoc coalitions of the willing, strategic special-purpose vehicles, one might even style them, are in creation. However, there is still a need for wider multilateral cooperation, where possible, and reference to the institutions that have, in the past, served the region very well.
To discuss that range of issues and to reflect also on the contribution that their own organisations or countries can make to the multilateral objective, we have Dr Nayef Al-Hajraf, the Secretary-General of　the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). We were delighted to receive him last year, in December, at the　Manama Dialogue, where, even before vaccinations, we managed to have a COVID-secure, in-person　Dialogue, and I am really delighted that that experience was good enough for him that he has returned and paid us the compliment of coming again.
It is a huge honour and delight to have the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Egypt, Sameh Shoukry.
Egypt’s importance to the Arab world hardly needs underscoring by me, but the Egyptian perspective on multilateralism is vital. We have received Sameh Shoukry in the past at the Manama Dialogue, and I am glad that he has been able to organise his schedule to be with us again today.
Najla Mohammed El Mangoush, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Libya, knows the IISS well too. She has made also extraordinary personal efforts to be with us today.
Dr Peter Maurer, the President of the International Committee of the Red Cross, whose organisation
does so much to improve the humanitarian situation around the world in different and severe areas of conflict, to bring a perspective from his organisation.
That is our menu for the next hour and 15 minutes, and with no further delay could I ask, first, Dr Nayef Al-Hajraf, Secretary-General of the GCC, to address the Manama Dialogue. Thank you, sir.
Dr Nayef Al-Hajraf, Secretary-General, Gulf Cooperation Council
Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you, Dr John Chipman and your team, for putting together this very important Dialogue and keeping it for the 17th year in a row. It has started raining outside and, in this part of the world, whenever it is a rainy day it is always a good day, and I am sure that this will be reflected inside this room.
It gives me great pleasure to be back at the IISS Manama Dialogue, which always delivers on muchneeded discussions and thoughts, especially as the world is going through so much around this region. Such discussions and thoughts like the ones we had this morning are very much needed, so again, thank you, Dr John and your team, for organising this 17th Manama Dialogue.
I would like also to congratulate the organisers on this session’s theme, Multilateralism and the Middle East, a topic that is just the right theme at the right time. However, I would like to pose some questions before I start my remarks. Why is multilateralism always associated with security and diplomacy? Are there any limitations to that? For us, in the Gulf, multilateralism is a way of life. As we are meeting today at the 17th Regional Security Summit, I am sure many of us in this room have seen multilateral initiatives succeed on so many fronts, as we can all quickly recall the regional conflicts of the 1980s, the 1990s and the 2000s and how we were able to overcome them successfully and quickly through cooperation both on a global and a regional scale.
In the Gulf, multilateralism is in our DNA. The GCC itself is built on a multilateral initiative and is sustained by the commitment of member states to ongoing cooperation. Our history is filled with examples of multilateralism, initiatives and policies, in times of war, yes, but also in times of peace to fuel economic growth and solve shared challenges. Yet so much of the set-level conversation surrounding multilateralism lives within a security and diplomacy arena, even though there aremuch more initiatives taking place outside these areas, but they do not get labelled as such, they do not get the same attention and do not get the same urgency. It is time to expand conversations to include other areas. It is time to approach non-conflict matters with the same urgency we approach diplomatic and armed conflict and commit to their success in the same way that we commit to their success when there is a conflict or even a pandemic.
Climate and environment, sustainability, economic cooperation and interdependence, women’s empowerment, development, [are] just some examples. These are no longer domestic or unilateral matters. These are the next frontiers of multilateralism. For example, Saudi Arabia’s Green Initiative and the Middle East Green Initiative were both launched by Saudi Arabia a few months ago and are open for other countries to take part in. The G20 Summit in Rome last month, COP26 in Glasgow to address climate change, COP27, which will be taking in place in Egypt in 2022, and COP28, which will be taking place in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) in 2023, are all examples of the next frontier of multilateralism. We know multilateralism efforts tend always to succeed in matters of security, diplomacy, conflict resolution or pandemic, as we have seen. It is time to approach other matters with the same urgency.
In the GCC, we are expanding the multilateral infrastructure that was built over the last four decades to include other areas and overcome more challenges. Today, in the GCC, we are approaching the development of the region with the same urgency as one would approach matters of conflict. In a sense, you could say we are in a race. Yes, we are racing against time. Today, we are, in a very diligent way, working on growing our economies and making them competitive on a regional as well as global level. We are working together on cross-border workforce mobility, on flow of capital, on innovations and entrepreneurship, on power and energy, and the empowerment of GCC citizens.
None of these goals will be achieved unilaterally, and all of these goals bring benefit to member states and the wider region, so it is the new multilateralism in which economic integration will sustain regional security.
Ladies and gentlemen, Claus von Clausewitz, a German general and military theorist who died in 1831, is widely quoted as saying, ‘War is the natural continuation of politics but with other means’.
Perhaps it is time to see multilateralism as the natural approach to overcome shared challenges, not just in security but in human development, in sustainability and climate change. This is the next frontier of state-level multilateralism, and we look forward to a world that works together to overcome these challenges with the same urgency the world will approach matters of conflict.
Ladies and gentlemen, over the last two years or so, the COVID-19 pandemic has brought the world together and to work together, yet I can assure you, and I am sure so many people in the room agree,
that we still have so many ongoing pandemics that require our full and undivided attention and collective effort. We believe multilateralism does not threaten sovereignty. In fact, it strengthens it, it secures it and unlocks growth opportunities for everyone involved. So if there was ever a call for a modern, better and new multilateralism format for regionalism, for collaboration, for partnership between states and business, within borders and across borders, then 2020 was that call. A platform like this is what we really need. We need to share ideas and thoughts. We need to identify common challenges and create better understanding. We need to believe in our collective effort. We need to fulfil our moral and historical responsibilities and obligation towards future generations, so let us wait no more. There is no better time than right now.
Thank you, Dr Chipman, and thank you all for your time. I wish you all the best. Thank you.
Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS
Thank you, Secretary-General, for, if I might summarise it in this way, your urgent call to diversify multilateralism in order to build resilience and also to deal with the two most important transnational threats to our security, climate change and various forms of pandemic.



アラビア語から英語に同時通訳

Dr Ahmad Awad Bin Mubarak, Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yemen

In the name of God, Excellencies, ladies and gentlemen, please allow me at the outset to extend my thanks and appreciation to the Kingdom of Bahrain for the generous hospitality and welcome. I would like to thank my brother, His Excellency Dr Abdullatif Al Zayani, the Minister of Foreign Affairs, and his wonderful team, in addition to the International Institute for Strategic Studies for the good organisation of this important conference through which we look forward to presenting a clear picture of the security challenges facing the region and Yemen and to benefit from the visions and ideas of the participants in this conference. The war in Yemen is about to complete its seventh year since the Houthi militia launched it against the Yemeni people following the coup against the legitimate authority. This war is dangerous not only because the Houthi militia is trying to seize power, but it is also seeking to change the nature of Yemeni society, to derail its future and that of the region through recruiting children on a large scale, indoctrinating young people to incite violence, perpetrate conflict and spread hatred between the inhabitants of the same country and towards the others who are intellectually different. In addition, they are trying to spread ignorance in the community to make it easier to control, and they are working on impoverishing it and exploiting its needs to recruit it in wars. All of this provided a fertile environment for making Yemen one of the pillars of Iran’s expansionist strategy in the region. The Iranian project is now clear. Its militias are surrounding the Arabian Peninsula. Armed with qualitative military capabilities, the danger has widened. There is no doubt that the failure of the Iranian project in Yemen will ensure the failure of the Iranian project in the entire region. Its success in Yemen will usher in a new phase of conflict and lead to another cycle of violence and chaos. In my speech, I will try to clarify where we stand today and what our vision is for achieving peace in Yemen. Excellencies, the Marib Governorate is considered, at this stage of the war, the focus of attention of those who follow the Yemeni issue. Since last November, the Houthi militia has launched a continuous attack against the Marib Governorate. Such an attack is loaded with grudges that are no less important than the illusion that the militia bears the possibility of militarily seizing the governorate and the greater illusion of controlling Yemen with violence, terrorism and military force. The Marib Governorate, with its historic importance, has gained today a national and strategic importance. Many might have forgotten that this governorate defeated the Houthis, in 2015, with modest combat capabilities compared to what it has today, with a population of no more than 350,000 people. It is more capable today. It has become a haven for Yemenis of various social and political affiliations, with a population of four million people among which two million are internally displaced persons (IDPs). This population is supportive of an army having a national creed and a firm and unbreakable will to end the Houthi project. Despite this, it is necessary to point out that there are miscalculations on the part of some stakeholders who have started talking about the post-Marib scenario. If we have a discussion about such a scenario that is unrealistic for us, we will undoubtedly say that if the Houthis control Marib, it will be as bad as when its historically famous dam was destroyed. Today, Marib is the impenetrable wall for Yemen. It has become one of the most strategic priorities of the Iranian regime and its proxies in the region. The fall of Marib will not only lead to a horrific humanitarian situation, it will also mark the end of the political and peace process in Yemen. It will put an end to efforts being made to restore security and stability. Chaos will prevail; more violence, internal strife and waves of migration will follow. It will be the beginning of a long-term state of instability that might lead to other wars being waged from Yemen towards the rest of the region. Ladies and gentlemen, our vision and approach in the Yemeni government is the following. There is no alternative to peace in Yemen. Any just, comprehensive and sustainable peace must address the political roots of the war, represented by the attempt by the Houthi militia to impose its control and hegemony by force on Yemen. Despite the destructive Iranian intervention in Yemen, despite its military support for the Houthi militia and its financing of its war machine, treating the war in Yemen as a regional proxy war is a misconception that should be corrected. No peace settlement in Yemen can be successful without Yemenis agreeing on solving their internal problems in accordance with the outcomes of the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference and the equitable distribution of power and wealth. However, at the same time, it would be wrong to neglect the geostrategic dimension of Iranian interference in Yemen and Iran’s desire to get closer to the Red Sea and the Arabian Sea. Such a thing will give Iran strategic added value in the conflict and will increase regional and international competition. It goes without saying that Iranian investment in the Houthi movement started early and increased at the beginning of the second millennium. The seizure of the Iranian ships Jihan 1 and Jihan 2 on their way to the Houthis in 2012 (i.e., three years before the war) by the US Navy, while carrying weapons and missiles, proves that. It allows us, in fact, to answer those who claim that the current war is the reason behind the Iranian intervention in Yemen. Among the misconceptions, we can also mention that Houthis reject peace whenever they advance militarily on the ground. In fact, they reject peace as a strategic principle whether they are advancing or retreating militarily, and they deal with peace as a tactic within their military strategy. We have dozens of evidence about that. The clearest is probably the Stockholm Agreement, which was accepted by the Houthi militia in December 2018 without implementing any of its provisions, then it turned against it and completely revoked it in full view of the international community. Understanding this fact helps us to understand the appropriate approach to achieving peace with a group that does not base its calculations on facts, but rather on a theocratic thought based on the illusion of claiming the divine right to rule. This is the severe obstacle that has thwarted all that was agreed upon in all peace rounds, starting from Geneva to Kuwait and even Stockholm. If we take into account this clear fact, we can say that the most important test for the Houthi militia, a test that it constantly rejects, is accepting a comprehensive ceasefire as the most important humanitarian step to be taken, so that all other humanitarian issues can be addressed before going to negotiations to find a comprehensive political solution. We believe that the cohesion and union of all moderate political powers opposing the Iranian project in Yemen is the first requirement to impose a new reality on the ground that pushes towards achieving a political settlement, so that the Riyadh Agreement can be completed and implemented in addition to the security and military annex, because they constitute an essential pillar for achieving peace and security.

The regional and international support for the Yemeni government in overcoming the economic challenges facing it in addressing the economic situation and strengthening partnerships in the political, economic and humanitarian aspects pertaining to the Yemini crisis will, no doubt, enable the government to maintain a moderate Yemen. A Yemen that shares with the world common humanitarian values and principles. We know the importance of continued and concerted efforts and coordination between countries of the region and the world to put pressure on Iran to stop its subversive activities in Yemen, so that the Middle East enjoys security, peace and stability. Excellencies, achieving peace in our country is enough to curb the militias and to address all the problems and issues they have caused in Yemeni society. This is why we need to deal flexibly with all initiatives and endeavours aimed at achieving peace in line with our national principles, the Gulf initiative and its executive mechanism, the outcomes of the Comprehensive National Dialogue Conference and Security Council Resolution 2216, to achieve a comprehensive, just and lasting peace, to restore security and stability in Yemen. Please allow me, in conclusion, to refer to the catastrophic environmental danger that everyone is expecting without, in fact, making any real effort to avoid it. The leakage of more than one million barrels of crude oil stored for seven years in the oil tanker Safer is a real disaster that will destroy the marine environment of Yemen and the region, especially the Red Sea and the Red Sea areas. The Houthis are still holding the tanker hostage. They are refusing to allow the UN team to maintain it. In conclusion, I wish you success in this conference. I hope that you will come up with visions and ideas that help confront security challenges in the region and the world. Thank you. Dr John Chipman, Director-General and Chief Executive, IISS Foreign Minister, thank you very much for underscoring the strategic importance of Marib and for reminding us of the enormous environmental disaster that awaits us if the Safer is not properly secured. I am sure, in discussion, we will also want to examine what the various reasons might be for the stalling of the peace process and whether divisions within the Houthi leadership are an important component of that, or whether there are other reasons that can be ascribed to that failure.