China - Tibet Autonomous Region: Dalai Lama Threatens to "Resign" as Pro-Tibet Protests Continue
The Dalai Lama today held talks with the Tibetan Youth Congress and other radical Tibetan exiles, a day after he threatened to "resign" as Tibet’s spiritual leader amid continued tensions between Tibetans and the Chinese authorities.
Tibet's government-in-exile has put the "confirmed" death toll from a week of unrest at 99 following reports that 19 Tibetan protestors were shot dead in Gansu province yesterday. However, these figures have been rejected by the Chinese government, which has put the death toll at 13 "innocent civilians", while claiming it has not used lethal force to quell the riots. A report by China’s official Xinhua news agency claimed that 105 Tibetan "rioters" had surrendered themselves to the authorities following the expiry of a deadline to do so at midnight on Monday (17 March; 16:00 GMT). Meanwhile, U.S. secretary of state Condoleezza Rice has called on Beijing to open up discussions with the Dalai Lama, whereas Russia has referred to the situation as an "internal matter" for China. In the Nepalese capital, Kathmandu, 59 Tibetan exiles were arrested following a protest outside a UN complex, in which they were demanding that the UN launches an enquiry into the crackdown in Tibet.
Significance: Although riot activity in Tibet appears to have been quashed by Chinese authorities, disturbances in neighbouring provinces appear to be continuing. As the crackdown continues, Tibetan exile groups have called into question the Dalai Lama's conciliatory approach in dealing with China—notably, his calls for non-violence, dialogue, and autonomy rather than independence and his reluctance to call for a boycott of the Olympic Games.
China - Tibet Autonomous Region: Chinese Premier Blames Tibet Violence on Dalai Lama as Surrender Deadline Passes
Chinese premier Wen Jiabao today blamed the Dalai Lama for recent unrest in Tibet as the annual parliamentary session closed, saying that they were "a plot to sabotage" the upcoming Beijing Olympic Games. At a press conference following the conclusion of the National People’s Congress (NPC) today, Wen held that the protests that turned violent on Friday (14 March) had taken place on orders from the Dalai Lama.
He said that they undermined claims made by "the Dalai Clique" that it was pursuing peaceful negotiations. The Dalai Lama has maintained that he played no role in organising protests, which were initially peaceful, and has reiterated that he does not support calls to boycott the Olympics. Meanwhile, the international community has called on China to show restraint as a deadline passed yesterday for protesters to surrender or face "harsh treatment".
Significance: The international community has voiced concerns that the crackdown in Tibet could escalate to a scale reminiscent of the Tiananmen Square incident in 1989, but so far no reports of a major military crackdown have surfaced. However, a massive security presence remains in the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, as the Chinese government seeks to control the largest challenge to its rule in the territory for two decades. The response is seemingly being played down given concerns that a major crackdown could severely dent China’s image ahead of the Olympics. This has taken the form of conducting house-to-house searches to round up suspects, according to the BBC. Additionally, there are reports that military convoys have been dispatched into Tibet from neighbouring provinces, with Chinese sources with connections to security forces holding that 600 monks have been flown from Lhasa to Chengdu, the capital of neighbouring Sichuan province. This is likely to have removed the backbone of the protests that began in the capital's most historically important monasteries, "the Three Pillars of Tibet". Meanwhile, unconfirmed reports claim that troops have sealed off towns in the neighbouring provinces of Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu, highlighting the government’s commitment to swiftly contain protests.
According to international media reports, hard order has been enforced throughout the Tibetan capital, Lhasa, and other regions with concentrated Tibetan populations. The means of achieving this result are in dispute, with the difference between the perspectives reported in the domestic and international media almost as stark as that between liberator and oppressor. All this has happened during the run-up to the last day of the current National People's Congress (NPC). As previously reported by Global Insight, the culmination of the annual NPC, has, however, been overshadowed by the eruption of the largest protests in Tibet for two decades.
A week of peaceful protest spearheaded by monks turned violent last Friday (14 March) as Tibetans clashed with security forces. Chinese authorities have held that "13 innocent civilians" have been killed in the protests, blaming "the Dalai Lama Clique" for organising "splittist activities". Exiled Tibetans have, however, held that real number is more than 80 dead, with troops seeking to re-establish control as protests spread to neighbouring Sichuan, Qinghai, and Gansu provinces.
The international community has criticised the heavy crackdown and called for restraint, with the Dalai Lama, Tibet's spiritual leader, accusing China of committing "cultural genocide" for forbidding Tibetans from practicing their distinct culture and religion without interference from Beijing. He has refused to issue calls to Tibetans to halt the protests, saying that this would be against his moral authority. Tibet regional governor Qiangba Puncog has meanwhile denied allegations that Chinese troops have used lethal force to quell the protests in Lhasa. Chinese authorities called for "a people’s war to oppose separatism", having imposing a deadline on Monday (17 March) for protesters to surrender or alternatively face "harsh punishments".
Outlook and Implications
Criticism that has gone beyond the Chinese government's immediate response to the ongoing situation in Tibet has included the imbalances of China's reform agenda, which has focused on economic reform at the expense of a more complete social one. With respect to Tibet, such an imbalance has been arguably even larger, as the economic agenda—which includes the migration of large numbers of non-Tibetan business people to the region with the backing of the central government—has contributed to the current state of social affairs. Tourism has provided a major boost to the region's economy, but recent events could cause a re-evaluation of the potential unintended consequences of increasingly greater openness of one of the country's most politically sensitive regions of the country. This could potentially slow the development of the tourism sector; regardless of whether this happens or not, it is unlikely that the degree of state control over the region will decrease in the near future. The combination of these two factors is behind our Political-Security Risk Rating downgrade, and we will continue to follow events in Tibet closely.