ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会コミュのNATO and Russia’s War on Ukraine: A Conversation with NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoana

Kenneth R. Weinstein (Hudson Institute): …NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană to Hudson today for a discussion entitled NATO and Russia’s War on Ukraine. These are, of course, momentous times in history and especially in NATO’s history. Not too long ago, as we all recall, following transatlantic disputes over burden sharing and the value of Article 5, with no less a leader than French President Emmanuel Macron declaring NATO ‘brain dead’, some thought that NATO’s time may have passed.

Seeing what he perceived to be major tensions at the heart of the Atlantic Alliance and thinking a weak Western response would result, Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine only to find a massive and largely united transatlantic Alliance. As we head into the historic Madrid summit, seven and a half weeks away at the end of June, we see a reinvigorated NATO with member countries proudly aiding Ukraine, spending more on defence, especially Germany after the Zeitenwende, the US bringing new capabilities into the region, with Sweden and Finland on the verge of major decisions to ask to join the Alliance. And at the Madrid summit as well, we will see the first new NATO Strategic Concept unveiled since 2010.

What are the priorities for the Alliance? What is NATO’s role in Ukraine? What are the broad outlines that we’re likely to see in the NATO ’22 Strategic Concept? I can’t think of a better interlocutor than Deputy Secretary General Geoană to be with us today. He is, of course, the first Deputy Secretary from one of the former Warsaw Pact nations. He’s well known here in Washington: friend of Hudson Institute; former Romanian ambassador to the US; former President of the Romanian Senate; Chairperson of the OSCE. Dr Geoană founded and served as President of the Aspen Institute, Romania. It’s just an honour and a pleasure to welcome you to Hudson Institute. Thank you so much for being here. And also thank you to your colleagues in NATO for bringing this event about.

NATO Deputy Secretary General Mircea Geoană: Thank you so much, Ken, I would like to thank the Hudson Institute for welcoming me and then hosting me again. I remember with great pleasure our encounter two years ago. So I’m very pleased to be at the Hudson Institute today. Your institute does impactful research, including on matters that have great relevance to NATO and to the transatlantic partnership. So it’s truly an honour to speak to all of you today. And like always, it’s a pleasure to be in the US, it’s a pleasure to be in Washington – my younger years, as ambassador here, and every time I come back to Washington, it’s like coming back home. Thank you for hosting me again.

But this time I came ahead of an important NATO summit, but also in the midst of the most transformative situation in European geopolitics, security and history in more than a generation. I was here to meet US officials to discuss the current, indeed very challenging, security context and how to see how Europe and North America, in NATO, together can better deal with the more dangerous security environment in Europe but also around the world.

I tell my interlocutors, just like I’m telling all of you today, that US leadership in NATO has been outstanding and it remains indispensable for our collective security. But even the US alone cannot tackle some of the global challenges we face. Geopolitical competition is fierce; brutal terrorism persists; cyberattacks are more complex and sophisticated; new technologies pose opportunities but also dangers; energy is a weapon of war; and climate disruptions are crises multipliers.

To deal with these challenges “it’s good to have friends”, as NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg said in his speech to the Joint Session of Congress in 2019. In the NATO family, the US has 29 – possibly more – of its best allies and friends, and a very broad network of close partners also round the world. The support for the transatlantic bond is very strong. And I’m very happy to notice that in the US public opinion, NATO is high in the public opinion surveys. In 2021, 85% of the citizens polled in the US believed the relationship between North America and Europe is important to deal with security challenges – that’s significant. That’s bipartisan. And this goes across political families or political cycles. That’s the glue of our Alliance.

And NATO embodies this bond. It is a unique forum that brings our 30 nations together to consult, decide and act on security issues that affect us all. Our unity, as Ken has said, is our greatest strength. And we know that in the long history of NATO since 1949, not everything has been like in paradise, there were crises, we’ll have probably crises in the future. But I say as a guy who has been working on these things for all my life, basically, I’ve never seen NATO as united as today. I’ve never seen NATO more united as we see it today. And I can assure you, on behalf of the Secretary General and myself and our team, that we are determined to maintain this impeccable unity for the long haul.

We are united in NATO in condemning President Putin’s ongoing war of aggression in Ukraine. Also, with many of our close partners from Finland, Sweden to Australia and Japan. And the meeting in Ramstein that took place a few days back is an indication that 40-plus countries there – it’s not only the NATO Allies, it’s America’s allies, it’s our closest partners from all over the world. We are collectively doing all we can to pressure Putin to stop the war. He started it. He must end it. The tough sanctions that the US and Europe and others are imposing on Russia are taking a toll on the Russian economy and Putin’s war machine. But the war is not over yet. Russian forces are conducting a military offensive in the east and continue to strike other parts of the country, causing continued suffering and also significant economic disruptions. The images and reports from Bucha, from Mariupol and other towns are testimony to the brutality of the conflict.

We also are united in supporting our Ukrainian friends and partners. With humanitarian, with financial and yes, indeed, military aid. Since the start of the crisis, NATO Allies have provided and committed billions of dollars for military equipment that Ukrainian armed forces need. I’m very happy to see the bipartisan support for Ukraine continuing to build in Washington and in US Congress. The $40 billion approved by Congress just a few hours ago is a testimony of the strong support that the US, us in NATO, and friends and partners around the world are giving to Ukraine.

The Ukrainian military is fighting a remarkably heroic and professional fight. And we are proud that we have been training the armed forces of Ukraine since 2014, since the illegal annexation of Crimea. And of course, there is a big difference of morale. Ukrainians are fighting bravely to defend their land. And the Russian troops are the lowest morale probably in the history of fighting and war fighting in Russia, ever. I do not remember, or have recollection, of a moment when Russian military and the troops were with so low of a morale like they have today.

But we have to continue to help Ukraine. And this is something that we are determined to help them, because they defend their rights, their freedom and their sovereignty. And because the values they are so bravely fighting for are also ours, are the glue of our Alliance, and they are the foundation of our prosperity, our democracy and our way of life. We are committed to sustaining our support so that Ukraine can prevail. It must prevail. It will prevail. The US-led contact group to support Ukraine is an important platform to coordinate the international community’s security assistance to Ukraine now and in the long-term.

At the same time as we support Ukraine, NATO has a responsibility to ensure this war does not spread, because this would lead to more suffering, to more death and more instability worldwide. So we are more united than in protecting one another and defending every inch of NATO territory with more troops, with planes, with ships, other equipment. For the first time in the history of NATO, defence plans for eastern flank countries have been activated. For the first time in the history of NATO, the NATO reaction force, response force has been activated. For the first time in the history of NATO, we are seeing a surge of support and investment by major European Allies, as Ken said, in supporting the sacred mission of NATO to defend every inch of NATO territory. Now there are more than 100,000 US troops in Europe, as well as high-end capabilities such as Carrier Strike Group. We have now eight NATO multinational battlegroups in the eastern part of the Alliance, both North Americans and Europeans contribute. There is no doubt that our commitment to Article 5 – one for all, all for one – is ironclad.

Let me say here that in NATO’s perspective, we are doing three things, three big important things at the same time as part of a unique strategy and philosophy to approach this conflict. Number one, as I mentioned, we continue to support Ukraine. Ukraine will prevail. The second part, we are defending Allied territory and we are doing this with a significant transformation of the very way in which we imagined the defence of the eastern flank countries. And we anticipate – I’ll get back to this later – that in Madrid our leaders will decide a strengthened posture on the eastern flank and a new quality of our presence on the eastern flank. And also, at the same time, NATO is also the risk owner. And we have to make sure and we are very attentive in making sure that as we support Ukraine, as we bolster defences in NATO, we do not run the risk of escalation in a war between NATO and Russia. This war is bloody enough, difficult enough. So this is, if you want, the way in which we see the balanced approach between these three components of our strategy.

But as I mentioned, our unity, our continued unity, is key for the future. Not only to keep 1 billion people safe in NATO, but also to uphold the rules based international order that is increasingly under pressure. Because the war that Russia started against innocent Ukraine is not only inflicting so much suffering and losses to Ukrainian people that defend bravely their land, but it’s also a major shock to the global system, to the international system, to the balance of power internationally. So this is why in NATO we are looking at this conflict as the most severe security crisis in Europe for generations, but also as a catalyst. It was an amplifier to already existing tensions and global competition between great powers.