ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会コミュの PM Lee Hsien Loong at May Day Rally 2022

Sister Mary Liew, President of NTUC
Brother Ng Chee Meng, Secretary-General of NTUC
Brothers and Sisters
A very happy May Day to everybody! It is such a joy to come back together again, celebrate in one large group, side by side, here at Downtown East, D’Marquee. Also wishing our Muslim brothers and sisters a blessed Ramadan and an early Selamat Hari Raya Aidilfitri!
COVID-19
It has been a long battle, and we are just emerging now from COVID-19. It is still not quite time to rejoice yet, but I think we have reason to feel relieved. We have done our best, protected lives and livelihoods, and we have come through alright.
As in past crises, the Labour Movement provided vital support to our workers. During the worst days of the pandemic, NTUC partnered the Government to extend lifelines to workers. You helped displaced workers find new jobs through the Job Security Council; you provided financial assistance through the NTUC Care Fund (COVID-19) and the Self-Employed Person Income Relief Scheme (SIRS). NTUC also worked closely with the employers, supporting companies to keep their businesses afloat, avoid retrenchments, and save jobs.
With everyone’s hard work and cooperation, we averted the worst impact of COVID-19. Many workers still suffered reduced earnings as we tightened Safe Management Measures (SMMs), especially during the Circuit Breaker but throughout the pandemic, we kept job losses down, and now the unemployment rate has almost fallen back to pre-COVID-19 levels. I thank Brothers and Sisters, all of you, for helping to see us through.
Strategic Outlook
At the start of this year, we were cautiously optimistic about our post-COVID-19 recovery. With the recent reopening of borders and relaxation of SMMs, the F&B and aviation sectors are rebounding strongly. SQ planes are flying again, and Changi Airport should recover to 50% of pre-COVID-19 passenger levels this year. Our hawker centres and restaurants are getting crowded once more. Our construction industry too is recovering, with contractors catching up on their delayed projects. But since the beginning of the year, the outlook has clouded, and the risks have grown considerably.
In particular, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is having a far-reaching impact on the world, and on Singapore. The war continues, and there is no good outcome in sight. The Ukrainians are fighting fiercely and bravely, and have done better than anyone expected. So the Russians are unlikely to swiftly defeat and subdue the Ukrainians, but neither can the Ukrainians beat and expel the Russians from their territory because the Russians have much larger forces. So the fighting will likely go on for quite a while longer, and the stakes are rising. The US now says its aim is to weaken Russia’s military capabilities, to prevent Moscow from invading other countries in future. America and NATO countries are stepping up supplies of weapons and military aid to Ukraine, including heavy weapons like tanks and artillery. On the other side, Russia now sees this not just as a fight in Ukraine, but as a struggle against many Western countries. It has accused Western countries of conducting a proxy war against it, in other words, using Ukraine to fight Russia. It has threatened “a lightning-fast response” and “unpredictable consequences” for those intervening in Ukraine. It has even stated ominously that there is a real danger of World War III. The longer the war continues, the greater the risk of this conflict escalating. Already, more destructive weapons are being used. There have been reports of possible Ukrainian attacks on Russian military bases across the border, in Russia itself. If the war spreads beyond Ukraine’s borders, or if unconventional weapons are used, no one will be able to control how the situation unfolds. This is deeply, deeply worrying. We hope that the fighting will stop, but even if a ceasefire is negotiated, I think peace will still be elusive. Too much blood has been spilt for Russia and Ukraine simply to sign a peace agreement, shake hands, and become friends and brothers again, and it is now not just between Russia and Ukraine. Relations between Russia and the many countries supporting Ukraine have also been severely damaged. More of Russia’s neighbours now want to join NATO to protect themselves. Russia is angry, but these countries are afraid. Tensions and hostility will persist for a very long time.

Most fundamentally, and what matters to us, is that Russia’s attack on Ukraine has undermined the global order: the basic rules and norms for countries, big or small, to interact properly with one another. That means not invading somebody else, claiming to put right “historical errors and crazy decisions”, because that is a flagrant violation of the UN Charter. It is bad for every country, but especially for small states like Singapore. Our security, our very existence depends on the international rule of law. That is why Singapore has taken a strong stand, condemned the attack and imposed targeted sanctions against Russia.
Beyond our security, these international tensions will affect Singapore in many ways. The ongoing conflict has made it extremely difficult, if not impossible, for countries to pursue win-win cooperation, whether at the UN, the G20 or at APEC. In particular, it will further complicate US-China relations, which were already strained. In the Asia Pacific, where we live, jostling between the US and China will result in a less stable region. It will become harder for countries to remain friends with both powers. Globally, countries will be unable to make progress on the many complex and urgent problems affecting all of us, including Singapore. For example, pandemics and climate change. These are global problems, no single country can deal with them alone. But if countries are fighting with one another, there is no hope of them cooperating with each other to solve such problems.
To us, one global cooperation framework is particularly crucial, and that is the multilateral trading system. Already, before the war, countries were restricting trade and investments with other countries that they no longer trusted. With COVID-19, there was further disruption to global supply chains and the vulnerabilities of these supply chains were exposed. Countries started talking about “re-shoring” supply chains to boost self-sufficiency, or “friend-shoring” to work only with trusted friends and allies. Now with the war in Ukraine, these trends are going to be pushed even further. But it is bad for us because Singapore’s economy depends heavily on international trade and investment. If countries no longer accept the rules of free trade, that makes it harder for us to continue to attract investments, to expand our export markets, to grow our economy, and to earn our keep in the world.
More immediately, Singaporeans are already feeling the impact of the war on the cost of living. This is a problem all over the world, not just in Singapore. The French have recently held presidential elections, and the cost of living was the hottest issue, hotter even than immigration. Even the US, which is a net energy exporter, is experiencing the highest inflation it has seen in 40 years. Even before Ukraine, inflation was already a problem, but the war has made it worse. Russia is a major exporter of oil and gas. Now that supply is being disrupted, European countries are trying to stop buying energy from Russia and Russia is also cutting off supplies to punish European countries for supporting Ukraine, and that is causing a worldwide energy crunch. That is why our electricity and petrol prices have gone up sharply. Food prices have gone up too. Ukraine is among the world’s largest exporters of cereal crops (like wheat, maize, barley) and vegetable oils. Because of the war, the Ukrainian farmers are running short of seeds, fertilisers, and even fuel for their tractors, that is assuming they can even tend their fields and farm at all. This has disrupted global food supplies and pushed food prices up, which is why our bread prices have gone up in Singapore for example.
The Government is doing all it can to cushion the impact on Singaporeans and alleviate the cost-of-living pressures. This year’s Budget included the Household Support Package which contained many direct measures to help households. There are U-Save rebates, there are CDC vouchers, there are S&CC rebates; these will reduce the out-of-pocket expenses for nearly all households. Lower- and middle-income households, who need more help, will get more. MAS has tightened our monetary policy to reduce imported inflation. That is why the Singapore dollar has appreciated, and that is why when you go overseas for weekend shopping trips, you find that it is attractive because the Singapore dollar has gone up. Fairprice is also making special efforts, I see they are having eggs at a discount so as to make a difference to the cost of living. And we are taking steps to secure our food and energy supplies, just in case the supplies are disrupted by the ongoing war.
All this will help, but we must be prepared for more economic challenges in the year ahead. Inflation will remain high. Central banks in the developed countries are tightening their monetary policies, raising interest rates. Global growth will be weaker, and there may be a recession within the next two years.
We have to face up to these realities. Singapore is tightly integrated into the global economy. Given our small size, in world markets, we are always a price taker, we have very little bargaining power. If the prices go up, our prices go up; if supplies are short, we are squeezed. We cannot avoid these global headwinds.
Take energy for example. We import nearly all the energy we use, except for the solar electricity that we generate ourselves. HDB rooftops and other buildings, but that is maybe 5% of our electricity consumption at most. When oil prices were around US$50 per barrel, every year our annual imports of crude oil and natural gas cost us about S$30 bn1. When the oil prices doubled to US$100 per barrel, which they have done since the beginning of last year, we have to pay double too – which means we all have to pay an extra S$30 bn a year for our crude oil and gas. We can recover part of this because some of it is transformed, we refine the oil, we make petrochemicals, we sell it overseas, and we charge more. But the rest we consume, we turn on the lights, we turn on the air conditioner, we drive our cares, we have to bear that cost –Singapore households, businesses, and the government. How much is that part which we have to swallow? MTI’s estimate is our hit is about S$8 bn a year. That is 1.5% of our GDP. That means that in Singapore, we have become collectively S$8 bn poorer off every year. There is no escape from this.
In the short term, government support schemes will help to share the burden fairly, and ease the hardship on households but in the long term, this does not really solve the problem. We can share the burden, but the burden is still upon us.
We must address the fundamental issue: which is that higher energy and food prices have made us collectively worse off. And the fundamental solution to this is to make ourselves more productive, to transform our businesses, to grow our economy, to uplift everyone. Then our incomes can go up, and that can more than make up for higher prices of energy and food. Then we can all become better off, in real terms.
There are limits to what Singapore can do to influence broader international trends. We will push back against deglobalisation, we will speak up to encourage the US and China to constructively engage each other. But ultimately all these matters depend on the major powers themselves, and the relations between them, and how the war in Ukraine unfolds. We have speaking rights, but we are a small voice. Singapore has to take the world as it is, and develop a strategy that works for us in this troubled environment. Bigger countries can turn inwards, they can rely more heavily on their domestic markets, and produce more things onshore. The Chinese talk about double circulation (双循环) – circulation within their country, circulation doing business overseas. We only have the overseas part, but they can do it because it will cost them economically, but it is a viable strategy for them. However, that is not a choice open to Singapore.
Our strategy can only be one – and that is to stay open, to make our economy stronger, more resilient, and to keep on seizing opportunities for growth, developing new capabilities and becoming a more competitive economy. Because if we do that, then despite the uncertain climate, despite the pressures against globalisation, investors will still find it worthwhile to put their projects in Singapore, our exports will still find foreign markets, and we can still earn a living for ourselves in the world.
But economic success alone is not enough. Our growth must be matched by social and political cohesion. There is war in Europe, there are major troubles in the world, and great power rivalry in our region. Facing all these external troubles, if Singaporeans are not strong and united, if we allow ourselves to be split and divided, we will be done for.
Tripartism – the Singapore Way
Our tripartite partnership has made a big contribution both to our economy and to our cohesion. It is our uniquely Singaporean way of conducting labour relations. Where Government, employers and unions are close partners, working together for a common cause, coming up with win-win solutions across many different issues over many decades. It is how we have come through uncertain times and crises in the past, and it is what we will continue to need, to remain united and successful in the future.
I am happy that the Labour Movement has been such an active and valuable partner in recent years, working hand-in-hand with its network of tripartite partners to strengthen our unity and cohesion. Several major policy changes have involved tripartite partnerships: it was the Labour Movement which proposed and helped to develop the Progressive Wage Model (PWM). Now we are expanding the PWM to more sectors, and that will boost pay and progression for many more lower-wage local workers. The Labour Movement gave valuable input to the new COMPASS framework for approving employment passes. This will ensure that foreign professionals granted employment passes (EPs) will complement our local workforce, and our local PMETs can continue to compete fairly. It will help us to stay open to talent and skills from the world, and thus create more opportunities for Singaporeans. The Labour Movement also worked with its tripartite partners on a long-term roadmap to raise the retirement and re-employ¬ment ages, and increase CPF contribution rates for older workers. These moves will support older workers who want to continue working and save more for their retirement years. The Labour Movement is also involved in other major projects, including the upcoming workplace fairness law to protect workers against unfair treatment, and the Advisory Committee on Platform Workers, to look after this precarious group and prevent them from falling through the cracks.
Besides contributing ideas, the Labour Movement has been deeply involved in the hard work of transforming and upgrading our economy, and improving the productivity of our businesses and workers. This does not just depend on having the right national policies. To make it happen, every business and every worker needs to make the effort.
Business transformation and upskilling, the two of them must go hand in hand, so that when new jobs are created, workers are equipped to take them up, when there is technology and progress, workers are not displaced. We have been pushing hard – digitalisation, automation, upskilling and training – every May Day we talk about it for years now. But I am glad we did that, because when the pandemic forced the pace, our businesses and workers were not caught by surprise.
There are many bright spots in our economy. Even while the pandemic was raging, quite a few businesses were doing alright. That is why although some workers suffered pay cuts, overall, and after the SMMs and Circuit Breaker, wages have increased and household incomes have risen in these past two years. We must build on this momentum. Keep our eyes open for new opportunities, press on with transformation efforts, and strengthen our resilience for the future.
Recently, I met some union leaders and their partner companies. They spoke about the challenges which they were tackling, and how they are pivoting and adapting to capture new opportunities. I was glad to see the positive changes happening – union by union, company by company. Let me share with you three examples.