ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会コミュのFULL INTERVIEW: PM Trudeau speaks with Evan Solomon

Evan Solomon: Here we are at the end of 2021, and the number one issue is inflation. It's at an [eighteen] year high. You get questions about this every day, people are deeply concerned about the cost of living every day. The answer the government, and you provided a lot is ‘look, we've got this national childcare strategy,’… and affordable housing. Those are long term solutions. What in the short term will your government do to alleviate the pain of inflation?
Justin Trudeau: Well first of all, inflation is a direct consequence of the global COVID crisis. I mean, COVID remains the number one issue people are dealing with. We don't want it to be the number one issue anymore, everyone's tired of it, but we're dealing with supply chain disruptions and price disruptions related to COVID. And therefore, the number one thing we can do to support people right now in the economy, is get done with COVID. And that means continuing vaccinations, getting people to get their boosters as well. The boosters are strongly effective against Omicron even as they are right now. We need to keep doing the things we do to get through this crisis. So that we can get our economy back to normal, so people can get back to the things they love to do and we can move forward.

Solomon: I appreciate that, although—and we’ll get at the causes of inflation in a minute— but are there other short-term levers that the government has? [U.S. President] Joe Biden said ‘you know what we're going to do? We're going to do ports in Los Angeles, we're going to go 24 hours a day to alleviate supply chain issues.’ What will your government do?
Trudeau: We've been doing those sorts of things, money directly for ports to minimize the disruptions in supply chains… There are lots of things we're continuing to do to support people who are affected by COVID, to support families, to support individuals. Yes, childcare and housing are a big part that are going to help it, but there's always more to do and we're looking at it.

Solomon: One thing you could do, one question is: Is stimulus a part of the inflation? Not the cause, we know there's a global cause because we see inflation all over the world. But, your government also says, ‘look, we've recovered more jobs than we've lost… The economy is growing, it's roaring back.’ So if it’s roaring back, is it time to rein in the spending? Maybe it's time to say: ‘Okay, if we're roaring back, let's stop that stimulative effect,’ and maybe that eases the inflation?
Trudeau: That's an argument that's being made by Conservatives right now. One of the things that we all remember in the 2008 recession, Conservatives pulled back the support too quickly, and that recession lingered longer than it needed to. We promised to be there to support people through COVID and all its impacts, and that's what we're doing. So the support for small businesses, the supports for families, the supports for vulnerable people, we're going to continue to do them, even as we make fiscally-responsible investments in things that will make a difference in the long-term.

Solomon: Again, you're talking about three years here, of stimulus. What's your projection for how long this inflation situation lasts? The Governor of the Bank [of Canada] says it's not short-lived, transitory, but not short-lived… How long is this going to last for? That's what people want to know.
Trudeau: We want to minimize it, and what you're calling stimulus over the next few years, we're calling indispensable supports for the tourism sector, supports for hard hit cultural industries that are still affected by the pandemic. We're not going to start pulling away those supports because we know Canada came into this COVID challenge with one of the best fiscal situations of the G7, and we still have one of the healthiest balance books of all our peer countries.

Solomon: There's a cost to that you know… Since 2015 the debt has almost doubled. By 2026, the number will be $1.6 trillion... So you say you have Canadians backs now, what about the backs of the kids who have to pay for it in the next generation?
Trudeau: The cost of servicing that debt is lower now than it was a few years ago, before COVID. We are doing this in a fiscally-responsible way. And there was a decision to make in the beginning of the pandemic of, do we massively support people through this? Or do we hold back our firepower to help people out of it? Conservatives said we needed to show restraint, not help people so much now because we need it more later. We said no, no, we're going to help them right now, and actually what that has shown in countries that did like Canada, is the recovery is quicker and better and people are better off. The choice of helping people more, of having their backs was the right one, regardless of what critics say.

Solomon: You're looking in the rearview mirror, let's just look out the windshield because I want to look ahead, someone's got to pay for that. The underlying assumption about interest rates for you and I think it's a risky one prime minister, is that interest rates will always remain lower than growth. Historically, that's not the case, growth could be significantly less than interest rates. If interest rates go up, then we are in a structural deficit. Are you worried about structural deficits?
Trudeau: I think it's always a mistake to try and bet against Canadians. What we're making is investments now. Talk about childcare, talk about renewables, talk about the digital economy.

Solomon: You can’t call spending always betting for Canadians, you also have to be responsible with your spending.
Trudeau: Absolutely, so let's talk about childcare. That's $30 billion, that's a big part of the investments we've talked about. Not only is it good for families and moms specifically, not only is it good for kids and giving them an opportunity, it's also something that allows for growth in the workforce and significant growth of our economy. So yes, that's a big upfront number that we're spending and quite frankly, Erin O'Toole said ‘don't do it.’ He would rip up those programs, he doesn't think that's worthwhile spending. I believe it is because it ends up returning more to the economy by having childcare affordable for Canadians.

Solomon: I'll just give you an example. You've also promised to increase health care transfers to the province by five or six per cent. Growth is not going to be five or six per cent. So you know, you're talking about spending from discretionary money, $397 billion.
Trudeau: Okay, then let’s talk about health.
Solomon: But the question is, where is the money coming from? If you can increase transfers five to six per cent, but growth is two and a half per cent, you're running deficits forever.
Trudeau: What we've committed to is investing in mental health supports, better mental health care across the country. We know that yes, that's an investment that we're going to have to make up front to make sure there's a capacity to handle the health care needs and the mental health needs in the coming years. But we also know Canada will be much better off if people are healthier, more productive, and able to handle the challenges and anxiety not just of this pandemic, of so many things that are coming at us down the pipe. So it's about making smart, fiscally-responsible investments that are there for people.

DEFICT AND TAXES
Solomon: But you need revenue. You can't just keep spending. Politics is about choices, where's the revenue coming from? Will there be new taxes to pay for that? And if so—we assume there will be—where will they come from?
Trudeau: We have been consistent on not raising taxes on the middle class, not raising taxes on Canadians. And the first thing we did was raise taxes on the wealthiest 1 per cent so we could lower them for the middle class. We've brought in, or are bringing in new revenue tools by asking the wealthiest banks to pay a little bit more because they did well during this pandemic, while small businesses were struggling.

Solomon: Critics will say a payroll tax is a tax on small business, which is a tax on the middle class.
Trudeau: You're talking about EI investments? Well, we know that adjusting for the gig economy, adjusting for the way people actually work now, particularly coming out of this pandemic, people deserve to have supports they need. And these are the kinds of investments that support Canadians, that allow them to be more productive, more prosperous.
Solomon: Do you worry about the deficit?
Trudeau: Yes, of course I do.
Solomon: Okay, you've been prime minister for six years. You once promised you'd balance it [the budget]. Those promises have never come to you. In fact, it's gone the other way. Now, there are circumstances, let's be fair, we understand the pandemic, but there's no fiscal guardrail. Do you ever have a plan to get back to balance that's realistic?
Trudeau: Absolutely. We need to continue shrinking our debt as a size of our GDP. We need to make sure that the amount we owe as a proportion of the economy continues to decline. And that's exactly what we're doing, even with all the extra investments and spending we've made now, our fiscally-responsible track remains. You know, politicians always have debates… Let's look at the third party experts. Look at the credit rating agencies. Canada has kept a triple-A rating from some of the largest agencies because our track is sustainable.

Solomon: Still, record high deficits, record high debt levels, and that does not count subnational debt, like the provinces, and household debt. I mean, prime minister I understand the rating agencies… but it is fair to say people are living on borrowed money, and one day someone's going to have to pay for this. What's the answer to who does that?
Trudeau: On the one hand we have actually seen that because of the supports we put out during the pandemic, people have been saving a little bit more money, but they're facing increasing costs for groceries, they're facing increasing costs at the pump. People are worried about that, and that's why we need to first and foremost get this pandemic back under control, make sure that we're getting through it. And second, continue to be there for the expenses that are significant in people's lives, like housing, and childcare. And it's not just a long-term plan of childcare, prices are already going down in Saskatchewan. In January, prices on childcare will decrease significantly as well and hopefully all across the country.

HOUSING AFFORDABILITY
Solomon: Cost of living and affordability is slightly different than inflation…. But let's talk about inflation in housing, which is the other big issue. Since 2015, when you were elected, the average house price has gone up 77 per cent, and we can talk about who's to blame for that… What will your government do on a material level, to help people buy houses and to stop the housing crisis from inflating?
Trudeau: One of the things we need to do is create more supply, and that's why we put forward a plan in the last election to invest $4 billion to municipalities to help accelerate the creation of supply, of creating more low income and modest income rental housing. Cut down some of the red tape, provide federal lands to build on, move things forward in a way that incentivizes the creation of more housing, not just so housing prices can go down but so that we can continue to bring in immigrants to continue to contribute to our workforce.

Solomon: The problem is I spoke to Evan Siddall, the former CEO of the CMHC [Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation] who you know, and I asked him about this program. The homebuyers incentive, and the $4 billion fund. He said it's a multi trillion dollar housing market, and it's too small to make a difference. That will not truly impact supply, maybe at the margins. He just doesn't believe that's enough. There's too many other factors, especially low interest rates. One thing he said that would really deal with housing inequity is a capital gains tax, not retroactive but going forward on primary residences. Would you ever consider that?
Trudeau: That's not something we're looking at. We are, however, in agreement with both you and Evan, in that there is no one silver bullet that's going to fix housing. We need a range of programs, whether it's eliminating blind bidding and cutting down on predatory practices, whether it's investing in things like the portable housing benefit that we have for low-income families, the Canada Housing Benefit, whether it's incentives for first-time homebuyers that are helping them afford the cost of their mortgage and their down payment. There has to be a range of things both on the demand side and the supply side.

Solomon: That’s interesting, because one of the issues is that economists say that when you do things like reduce the mortgage insurance payment or the first-time homebuyers tax credit, that makes it easier to buy a home, that incentivizes people. The problem is that increases demand, that inflates the house price, and shorts the supply. The very things you're doing are the very things that may be causing the inflationary pressure.
Trudeau: They could, if it weren't for the fact that we're very aware of those challenges. Simply put, if you give everyone an extra $1,000 to buy a house, all the prices go up by an extra $1,000. So you have to be very careful about how you do it, and that's why we're designing programs that aren’t easy, that aren’t explainable in a in a three minute clip, that actually support specific parts and segments of the market to be able to challenge the problems we are facing... There are measures you can put in, that we are putting in, that are going to accelerate the rate at which young people, young couples can buy their first home and start building that equity. But you're right, it's a complex question, and the position we're having is we need to do more to support people and that's exactly what we're focused on.

THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC AND BOOSTERS
Solomon: Okay. Let's go to the pandemic. Gosh, we thought we're out of it. And now here we are with Omicron. What's the projection on how long this lasts for? What is the government prepared to cover and I was looking at the books and it looks like you have books that say there's programs to support the pandemic for five years. Is your government preparing COVID programs over the next five years?
Trudeau: We made a simple promise to Canadians at the beginning of pandemic, that we would have their backs as much as it took, for as long as it took. It's not just about doing the nice thing. It's about knowing that when you support people through a crisis like this, you bounce back stronger whenever that ends up happening. So as long as the pandemic lasts, we will be there to support Canadians.

Solomon: But how long? What's your projection? … Are we out of this by next year? What’s your projection?
Trudeau: I remember you asking me that question in mid-2020. You asked me again at the end of 2020… Everyone wants to know. The scientists all have different timelines, different potentials. It depends how bad Omicron is. They're still trying to do the tests on it. We're definitely in it for a while longer, but what I can control and what the government can control, is saying we will be there to support Canadians as long as it takes.

Solomon: One way out is boosters, and we're behind the U.K. and the U.S. in getting our boosters. Isn't one of the lessons learned we should have done this faster? Why aren't our boosters being rolled out faster?
Trudeau: We have procured enough supply for everyone to get boosters. The delivery of those boosters, is on the provinces and they are setting up their timelines in terms of that. What we are learning from the U.K. and others, is get people those boosters as quickly as possible because even the current formulation is effective against Omicron. So, people should be getting their boosters as soon as they can.

Solomon: When are they coming?
Trudeau: They're coming as soon as we need them.
Solomon: Is there a schedule?
Trudeau: There is a schedule, well there are commitments to have the boosters in Canada as soon as we need them. We have enough boosters for everyone.
Solomon: But we don't have them here in Canada, and like if all 26 million people said we want them now.
Trudeau: If we want them tomorrow we wouldn't be able to deliver them into 26 million arms tomorrow. But, as soon as we can roll them out, we have enough boosters secured for everyone.
Solomon: Will we need an annual shot? Is the government planning for an annual booster?
Trudeau: We don't know how this this pandemic is going to unfold, which is why we have secured deals for the coming years and years on access to boosters and to shots, if necessary.

Solomon: The vaccine equity issue is interesting. I spoke to Dr. [Peter] Singer from the WHO [World Health Organization] and the WHO is saying don't give rich countries like Canada the third shot when only seven per cent of Africa has had one shot, maybe less. What’s your view on the morality of that? Taking a third shot for a Canadian when we know the virus mutates in unvaccinated places and it then boomerangs back to us? Should we be getting a third shot before some get a first?
Trudeau: That's an interesting moral question that we have gotten around by being one of the most active countries from the beginning on initiatives like COVAX and the ACT Accelerator, to make commitments to donate not just vaccines, but money and capacity to the world to be able to do it. We don't produce vaccines in Canada. But my responsibility as the prime minister of Canada is to make sure that we get enough vaccines to keep Canadians safe as the same time as we're investing in the world, and that's what we're doing.

Solomon: Would you cancel your plans for the Christmas holidays now, because people want to know. People want to travel, it's been two years. Is it time to cancel Christmas again? Time to cancel holiday travel? What's your take?
Trudeau: I think people need to make the right choices for themselves and based on public health information. I'm going to be spending Christmas at the cottage. I'm not going anywhere. Other families will make the decisions that are right for them.