Happy to talk to you again, and happy to be here virtually with everyone. It is one of the new, hopefully temporary, realities of dealing with COVID-19. Thankfully, many countries are in a better position now, with more people vaccinated. But with the Delta variant spreading, and future variants entirely possible, the way forward will be complicated.
International Cooperation
We had all hoped that the pandemic would prompt countries to work more closely together, just as after 9-11, when there was a period of solidarity and mutual support against extremist terrorism. But unfortunately with COVID-19, it has been quite different. Yes, there has been some cooperation, like on vaccine multilateralism, or the COVAX initiative. And international commerce has also been maintained. But more broadly, COVID-19 has not brought countries closer together; in fact often on the contrary. There was a scramble for critical supplies, like masks and PPEs, and later vaccines. And internationally, the pandemic has spawned recriminations and finger- pointing – where did the virus came from, who is to blame, and so on. Domestically, populations in many countries felt growing anxiety and insecurity, which has fed nativist sentiments.
Regional View of the US
One major international development this past year has been the change of the US Administration. The US has returned to a more conventional approach to foreign policy, a renewed emphasis on multilateralism, and has refocussed on its global network of allies and partners. There is a palpable sense of relief not just in the Asia Pacific, but all round the world. Countries are looking for long term strategic consistency from the US. They hope to sustain this policy not just for now, or the next 2 to 3 years, but for the long term, beyond the mid-terms and the next presidential elections. They hope for a reliable and predictable US, which will provide a stable anchor for the international order, as it has done for so many decades.
US-China
On one central issue, there has unfortunately been continuity, and that is US-China bilateral relations. These became more difficult during the last few years. In the US, this is reflected in a deep shift in attitudes towards China, which is bipartisan, and extends beyond the Administration and the Congress into the population. The same forces constrain and shape the policies of the current US Administration towards China, as shaped by the previous administration. In China too, attitudes have become more assertive and robust. China’s strategic and economic influence has grown. It has taken a more active international stance. It seeks to reshape the international order to its advantage. I think it will be hard to reverse the present trend towards more troubled relations. But many countries still hope that the deterioration in the relationship can be checked. Because many US friends and allies wish to preserve their extensive ties with both powers. No good outcome can arise from a conflict. It is vital for the US and China to strive to engage each other, to head off a clash which would be disastrous for both sides, and the world.
Meanwhile, we are glad that US is actively visiting countries in the Asia Pacific at the high level. Secretary of State Blinken and Defense Secretary Austin have visited Japan and Korea. Secretary Austin was also recently in Singapore, Vietnam and the Philippines. Vice-President Harris is visiting Singapore and Vietnam in a fortnight’s time.
Such high level visits are greatly valued. They show that the US is investing the bandwidth and resources in the region, and shows that it has substantial stakes and interests there to protect and advance.
And the US is in the Asia Pacific not just to ensure regional security and a balance of power, but also to advance these interests, to drive trade and investment, and to grow the broad trans-Pacific relationship. The current mood in the US is not pro-trade, but there are many new opportunities for the US to cooperate with the region, for example in digital trade and green growth. So I hope the US will pursue them, and continue to play a major role in fostering an inclusive, rules-based world order. Thank you.
* * * * *
Dialogue
Evan Osnos (Moderator): Prime Minister, thank you very much. You hit on a number of issues, which I think are very much top of the mind for the people here in the US. I want to follow up if I can please, on what is really one of the core points, which is this question of the US-China relationship. As you know, US Secretary of Defense, Lloyd Austin was in Singapore just recently and he attracted some attention because he said that China's claims and actions in the Indo-Pacific, as he puts it, threaten the sovereignty of nations around the region.
We are now in this period here in the world of China analysis (that) does not yet have a name. We are no longer in the era of engagement with China in quite the same way we were. The Biden administration talks about what it calls, extreme competition. I wonder if you would share with us your level of concern today about the state of affairs between US and China. Where are you on the temperature scale, how concerned are you and where do you think it is heading over the course of the next few weeks and months ahead?
PM Lee Hsien Loong: Well, we are concerned. This is not a burning issue which will explode on you tomorrow, but it is a progressive issue with very serious consequences. It comes down basically to how the US sees China and how China sees the US. And for a long time, the US saw China as a country you could work with. You have disagreements, you had many disputes, many issues on trade and currencies, and human rights and so on, but basically, there was space for them. You talked about responsible stakeholders, and you looked to China to be one of them.
China was quite happy to be in this flanking position. They were not in a position to challenge you, but they were happy to fly in your wake, and enjoy the tour. But it has reached a point where China is not so small anymore. It has grown dramatically. It continues to grow, although people say it is aging and the growth rates are slowing down. Its ambitions have grown together with its ability to influence events in the region and in the world. But especially in the region, because it considers Asia as its near abroad, if you use an old Soviet era term or Russian term.
Now from America's point of view, you are seeing a competitor – one which has strengths; one which is challenging you, perhaps not challenging you ideologically, the way the Soviet Union did, but challenging you as alternative centre of influence and prosperity, and vying with you, certainly for its space in Asia. You have to decide how you are going to react.
For a long time, the Americans are quite confident. Do not worry; we will have free competition, let the best man win. And you have no doubt, you would say quietly, the best man shall be the United States. And now you are not quite sure of that last bit. So, you say well, I must win one way or the other and I still believe in competition, but I would like the competition to be fair.
It is a very fine line from that to treating the competitor as the opponent or an adversary. President Biden has said there will be extreme competition, but he does not need conflict. Well, we all hope so and we all hope that the line is clearly drawn, but it is not easy to maintain that line, because I think within the US, there is a strong bipartisan consensus that the old model is broken and you need to take a more robust approach, and one which will to some considerable extent, lead at the very least to bifurcation of technology, of access to talent, even of capital markets.
On the other side, I think rhetoric says all the right things that there is a multilateral world; there is no single centre of wisdom or power; we all have to work together and win-win is much better than win-lose and all these things are true. But at the same time, the Chinese have looked at America and say, is this a country which is going to countenance my rise, or is this a country which wants at the very least to slow down my emergence?
I think that after what has happened over the last, is more than one administration, A significant number of people in China, probably at a high level, have concluded that you cannot safely assume that intentions will always be benign. And so, in this dynamic, to try and restore trust and work with one another – I think that takes statesmanship, courage, as well as political leadership domestically in both countries. Because in America, if you take Pew surveys, the mood is strongly against China. And if you take China, they have domestic opinion too. The domestic opinion is extremely nationalistic and wolf warrior diplomacy is very popular in China. In the meeting at Anchorage, it is part of the theatrics, but I am not sure if it is the right first act to play, which ends up with a happy conclusion. That is what many countries worry about.
Osnos: You mentioned a couple of times the sense that in Washington, this harder turn towards China is now a bipartisan position. I think it took a little while for that idea perhaps to be absorbed in Beijing. It felt as if this was an artifact of the Trump era.
I know Prime Minister that you are vigilant about not giving advice to your friends in foreign governments. You try to share your views, hear their views, but (could you) share with us your sense of how you have sought to explain to the Biden administration? Then we will talk perhaps about to Beijing. What is the message that you want the Biden administration to understand about this moment in US-China relations that you think may not be getting through in the usual discourse of the public?
PM Lee: There are many issues, there are many disputes, there will be many legitimate grievances even on both sides. But the reality is neither side can put the other one down. I think there is a possible misunderstanding on both sides, because in China people say the East is rising and the West is declining. Some people believe and write about it, that America is in terminal decline. I do not think so. I tell them you look at all the science and medicine Nobel Prize winners who are ethnic Chinese. All of them were either American citizens or became American citizens, except for one, who is a Chinese citizen.
There is a moral in that. America is able to attract people from all over the world, (has) great talent and vibrancy and ability to reinvent itself, and (could) pick itself up again after it appears to be heading irrevocably in the wrong direction for a long time, which sometimes happens. On the other side, I do not know whether Americans realise what a formidable adversary they would be taking on, if they decide that China is an enemy.
You have spent 20 years in Afghanistan. You have spent quite a long time in Iraq. These are small countries. But China is not going to disappear. This is not the Soviet Union. It is not the Potemkin village front. This is a country with enormous dynamism, energy, talent and determination to take its place in the world again.
Some of it, no doubt, is because of (what) Chinese would call it mass line work, but a skilful presentation of a view of the world to the population. But a lot of it is very deep pride and confidence in a population which feels that it has been downtrodden, perhaps has had the victim narrative put into them, a bit more than others might have done. But rightly, remembering where they came from, and determined to go forward, and they are not going to disappear.
So in this situation, I would say to both: Pause, think carefully before you fast forward. It is very dangerous.
Osnos: On that score - and we do have a range of other topics we are going to talk about today - but before we leave the subject of the US and China behind, I think there is something that is very much on people's minds these days in Washington. And that is the subject of Taiwan. As you know, there have been headlines everywhere about the possibility that there could be a Chinese move towards Taiwan, and some think that it would seize greater control, that it would disrupt the status quo. How concerned are you about the risks of a Chinese move like that?
Just for folks who are listening but may not remember, a couple of data points. The Head of Indo Pacific Command said in March that he believed that China was on course to have the capability within the next six years or so to take control of Taiwan. The Chairman of the Joint Chiefs spoke recently on the subject. Help us set our levels if you would Prime Minister. How concerned are you? What do you think the likelihood would be and what would the impact?
PM Lee: My take - I do not think they want to make a unilateral move. But I think there is a danger, and the danger is of mass miscalculation or mishap. So you are not in a dangerous position but you can get into a dangerous position quite easily. For the Chinese, Taiwan is the mother of all core interests. I mean it is the most important national subject for them, and Taiwan independence is an absolute bright red light. Mr Xi has put Taiwan reunification as part of his great rejuvenation vision, but actually it is not just President Xi who has this vision. This is in fact the unanimous view throughout China - the intelligentsia, the armed force, even the population. It is a very deep view and it is a reality. That path ahead in the first instance under Deng Xiaoping, the idea was one country, two systems. Do it with Hong Kong, make a model which works, hope that the model can apply to Taiwan.
I do not think, even before the recent developments in Hong Kong, that it was taking off. Certainly in Taiwan, I think there is very little support for such an idea. What was a workable approach for at least maintaining relations and developing cooperation was what was called the 1992 Consensus. One of the precisely vague statements was that there is one China but to each its own interpretation.
On that basis, they were able to work together with several KMT governments in Taiwan. But now, Tsai Ing-wen has said: No, the 1992 consensus is not acceptable. It is very going to be very difficult to work out an alternative form of words for cooperation. So you are in for quite a difficult period, especially as the Taiwanese population’s attitudes have been shifting. Two thirds of Taiwanese now think of themselves as Taiwanese and also want to maintain the status quo.
It is a situation where the mainland is looking carefully, wondering what they can do. If they squeeze, it turns the Taiwanese against them. If they relax, the fear that the Taiwanese will have more international space. I think that they are going to constrain Taiwan's international space as much as they can, but I do not think that they will make a unilateral unprovoked move. It is high risk. Even if it works, the victory would be decrepit, because what to do with 20 something million people on an island who are not willing citizens. A unilateral unprovoked move I think is not likely, but a miscalculation or mishap can easily lead you to a place where you do not want to be. Some of you may remember in 2001, there was an EP-3 accident and incident when an (US) EP-3 off the Chinese coast brushed against a Chinese fighter. The Chinese fighter crash and pilot died. The EP-3 had to make an emergency landing in Hainan Island. The US spent several weeks working on an apology to get the aircraft and crew back. I think if something like that happened today, you will be in quite a hard spot. I am not sure I would have similarly benign outcome. It is a very difficult position.
I think the American stance is crucial. Over the last few years, I think America has been taking noticeable steps to engage Taiwan, more visibly including military flights including diplomatic invitations, visits and so on. I think that will be watched carefully on both sides of the straits.
I would say that the official position this administration has taken has been a very careful one. Lloyd Austin was in Singapore recently. He was asked about this and what he said was important, although it was not very much picked up.
I quote what he said1. He said two things. One, “no one wants to see a unilateral change in the status quo with respect to Taiwan.” That means nobody is supposed to make a unilateral change and please make no mistake about that. The clause is mine, not his.
Secondly, “the US is committed to supporting Taiwan and its capability to defend itself in accordance with the Taiwan Relations Act, and the US’ one China policy.” In other words, the US is taking the position, which it has taken for several administrations. It is a careful statement. It is a statement to both sides that unilateral acts to change the status quo, are not welcome, and what the US will do is carefully spelled out in terms of the limits of where you are prepared to go.
I think if that careful position is clearly and consistently maintained, then we are able to maintain peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait, which is crucial to the whole region, and I think likely crucial to your overall relationship with China too. It is something to worry about, but it is not tomorrow's conflict. It is something over a medium term.
https:/
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会 更新情報
-
最新のアンケート
-
まだ何もありません
-
