Boris Johnson: (19:05)Thanks very much, Sally. Let’s go to Hugh Pym from the BBC.
Hugh Pym: (19:09)
Thank you, Prime Minister. In the light of the new information, do you expect the daily reported death toll to carry on rising for longer than you’d first thought, and then fall more slowly? And, on a different subject, what do you make of reports from Israel that the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine may not be as effective as first thought?
Boris Johnson: (19:32)
Well, Hugh, I mean, I’ll have a stab at the first, in the sense that we think, looking at the numbers of infections that we’ve sadly seen as a result of the new variant, that big surge that the country saw in the Christmas period and afterwards, which is sadly still going on as a result of the new variant, the death numbers will continue to be high. I wouldn’t really, for at least, for a little while to come. I wouldn’t want to go further than that, but I think probably you should hear from Chris and Patrick or Mack, and certainly, on the point about the efficacy of the first Pfizer dose, I think that that message needs to be heard loud and clear from Chris and Patrick.
Chris: (20:21)
I’ll answer the first on., Patrick might want to come onto the data from Israel. On the first one, the shape of when mortality occurs, which is your point about when is it going to occur, that’s driven by the rate of increase, and now hope, thanks to what everyone is doing, the rate of decrease of the virus over time, but that’s going to be slow from a very high base and it’s delayed. But the actual difference, if there is a difference, and so Patrick and I are both quite cautious about saying definitely there’s a difference, but the slight increase that Patrick was talking about, won’t change the shape of that. Obviously, it could slightly increase the proportion of people who die, who get infected, but the shape of the curve is driven by, are the rates going up or are they as they are at the moment, coming down from a very high base? So, Patrick may wants to talk about the other one.
Patrick: (21:09)
It’s just, I mean, the death rate’s awful, and it’s going to stay, I’m afraid, high for a little while before it starts coming down. That was always what was predicted from the shape of this, as Chris has said. I think the information about the new variant doesn’t change that. In terms of the Israeli data, I think that was information from one of the organizations that organizes health in Israel, and I think there are four. And, it was some preliminary data that came out on the numbers. I think Israeli Health Ministry has said that they’re not entirely sure that those are the final data and they’re expecting the effects to increase. So, I think it’s very preliminary. I mean, these are preliminary information from a subset of people. They haven’t followed people out for long enough. We had a discussion with the Israeli advisors yesterday and they’re expecting to get more information over the next few weeks.(22:02) I think we’re going to have to monitor this very carefully. I mean, we’re going to have to keep looking at data and understanding the performance of vaccines in the real world, but the trial data, are very persuasive. These are highly effective vaccines and we would expect that to translate into what happens in real practice.
Boris Johnson: (22:20) Thanks very much. Let’s go to Dan Hewitt at ITV.
Dan Hewitt: (22:25)
Thank you, Prime Minister. Given what we know about this new variant, how likely is it that the current lockdown restrictions are going to last longer now, perhaps beyond the spring into the summer? And, are you considering tougher restrictions in the short-term and a question of if I may, to Sir Patrick Vallance how much of the South African variant do you estimate is already here and how likely is it that a strain similar to the South African or the Brazilian variant developing here?
Boris Johnson: (22:53)
Dan, we think this is the right package of measures to deal with the new variant, and we don’t want to change them. What we want is to see people enforcing them and to see people obeying them. That’s the crucial thing. It’s more important than anything. Any new piece of law that government produces, is public willingness to comply. I think we are seeing some signs of flattening in the data. We’re seeing some areas, particularly London and the Southeast, where numbers of infections are coming down. That’s very encouraging. We’re seeing, perhaps a stabilizing of hospital admissions, but the rates are still very high. So, when you think about unlocking, we really can’t begin to consider unlocking it, until we’re confident that the vaccination program is working, until we’re confident that we don’t have new variants or changes in the medical, in our understanding of the virus, that might affect our calculations, but-(24:03)… -standing of the virus that might affect our calculations. But I think most important thing is that we’ve got to be in a position where the rate of infection is not still so high, and it’s very high right now, so for unlocking just to lead to another big rebound. I think that would be the wrong thing, the wrong way to approach it. We’ve got to get those rates of infection down as well. It’s not just a question of rolling out the vaccine fast as that is, you can’t unlock whilst rates of infection are so very high. That’s obviously something we’re thinking about, and that’s why obeying this current lockdown, making it work, and as I say, the signs are that it is beginning to work, that’s why that’s so absolutely crucial to this effort.
Patrick: (24:49)
I think in terms of the numbers here, I think the latest data from PHE suggests that 44 of people have been detected with the South African variant. It may be a bit higher because of some uncertain results at the moment, but I think 71 is the upper limit of what they’ve found. But there will be cases here. There’ll be cases all over the world of these variants. The key thing is to identify, contact trace, and try and make sure that we contain.
(25:19)
Clearly, the lockdown that we’re currently in will have a large effect to keep this contained. But it’s important to recognize that there’s no evidence that the South African or Brazilian variants have transmission advantages over what is already here. They wouldn’t be expected to spread more quickly or take over. They may actually have less, we don’t know. I don’t think the fact that there are some cases here means this is going to take off and become the dominant variant. That’s not what you’d necessarily expect, because it doesn’t have a transmission advantage as far as we know over the current UK situation. But it’s obviously important that we restrict the entrance of more variants and that we identify and contact trace those that are here.(26:03) Chris, whether you want to add anything to that?
Chris: (26:04)
Well, I think the only thing to add is that the variant that we have here, the so-called B117 variant is now spreading quite widely in other parts of the world, including, for example, in Israel, which Patrick talked about. Variants do move around. They’ve come from the UK and they come into the UK. That’s, I’m afraid the nature of these things.
Boris Johnson: (26:25)
But Dan, just to go back on the point about when and under what circumstances you could conceivably consider beginning to relax, it remains our intention to look at where we are on the 15th. If we can get to that JCVI, first four cohorts done, we will look at the state of the pandemic, look at what is happening and make an assessment. Obviously, we’re making assessments every day on where we are. But currently, the rate of infection is forbiddingly high. I think we have to be realistic about that.
Boris Johnson: (26:56) Let’s go to Sam Coates of Sky.
Sam Coates: (27:00)
Prime minister, if the new dominant variant in this country is more dangerous than the first one, is it really right that there are more people out and about than during the first wave and that the rules are more lax? Is there not more that you could be doing to keep people safe, like you did last year? (27:16)
To Sir Patrick, you said that this new variant of coronavirus spreads more easily, but you haven’t concluded why. Do you have any early theories as to what’s going on? Any different competing possibilities?(27:29)
To Professor Whitty, with infections now going down, the R number below one, are we actually at or even perhaps past the peak of infections?
Boris Johnson: (27:39)
Sam, we are enforcing the law very stringently with increasing toughness. You’ll have seen what Priti had to say about fines. We will do it. We will enforce the law. We will make sure that people don’t engage in activities that would mean mass transmission of the disease or substantial transmission of the disease. But it depends on all of us. It depends on everybody watching, doing the right thing, avoiding transmission. That is far more powerful and far more effective in stopping the transmission of this virus than police action or new laws from the government. And that’s what it takes. The rules are very, very clear, stay at home unless you have a very, very good reason for not staying at home, protect the NHS, and save lives. I think the people of this country really understand that. All the evidence is that they comply with the measures when it’s necessary and we’ll get it done. As I said, they’re all signs that this is working, but it’s going to need continued resolve and a determination.
Patrick: (28:51)
In terms of the why it may be transmitting more readily, people are looking at this in laboratories all over the world for all of these variants. I think one thing that we don’t think is the cause is that people have a higher viral load and shed more virus. We don’t think that’s the case. It may be that it binds more solidly to the receptor for the virus and gets into cells more easily as a result of that. It may be it grows more readily in certain cell types. Those are things that people are looking at, and more information will come. But I think what we can conclude is there must be some mechanism by which it can actually, say, either bind or enter the cell somehow.
Chris: (29:37)
In terms of the infection rate, if you took the country as a whole and just averaged it, overall, the number of infections is broadly going down, but it’s at a very, very high level and it’s extremely precarious, and I really want to stress this. A very small change, and it could start taking off again from an extremely high base, and there are some areas of the country and some age groups in which it does not appear to be going down. For example, in people 20 to 30, the evidence is actually, it may still be increasing in some parts of the country. It is not solidly going down and it is very, very high. If it took off again, it would do so from a very high rate. That’s in terms of infections. (30:15)
In terms of hospitalizations, which are delayed because of course people get infected, they get ill, and then they go into hospital, again for the country as a whole, it’s broadly flat at the moment, still going up in some parts, particularly in the Northwestern parts of the Midlands, for example, going down in parts of the East of England, South, Southeast, and bits of London. But that peak is not yet definitely going down everywhere. (30:43)And then deaths, which is the last thing, that is going to be delayed further. I think the peak of deaths may well be still in the future. It depends which peak you’re talking about, but I’m just going to go back to the first point.(30:56)
This is high, very high and very precarious. If people start took this moment and said, “Right, that’s it. It’s over.” We would get back into very deep trouble, very fast. The NHS is absolutely at the top of what it can manage. If that happened again, we would be in really, really deep trouble.
Hugh Pym: (19:09)
Thank you, Prime Minister. In the light of the new information, do you expect the daily reported death toll to carry on rising for longer than you’d first thought, and then fall more slowly? And, on a different subject, what do you make of reports from Israel that the first dose of the Pfizer vaccine may not be as effective as first thought?
Boris Johnson: (19:32)
Well, Hugh, I mean, I’ll have a stab at the first, in the sense that we think, looking at the numbers of infections that we’ve sadly seen as a result of the new variant, that big surge that the country saw in the Christmas period and afterwards, which is sadly still going on as a result of the new variant, the death numbers will continue to be high. I wouldn’t really, for at least, for a little while to come. I wouldn’t want to go further than that, but I think probably you should hear from Chris and Patrick or Mack, and certainly, on the point about the efficacy of the first Pfizer dose, I think that that message needs to be heard loud and clear from Chris and Patrick.
Chris: (20:21)
I’ll answer the first on., Patrick might want to come onto the data from Israel. On the first one, the shape of when mortality occurs, which is your point about when is it going to occur, that’s driven by the rate of increase, and now hope, thanks to what everyone is doing, the rate of decrease of the virus over time, but that’s going to be slow from a very high base and it’s delayed. But the actual difference, if there is a difference, and so Patrick and I are both quite cautious about saying definitely there’s a difference, but the slight increase that Patrick was talking about, won’t change the shape of that. Obviously, it could slightly increase the proportion of people who die, who get infected, but the shape of the curve is driven by, are the rates going up or are they as they are at the moment, coming down from a very high base? So, Patrick may wants to talk about the other one.
Patrick: (21:09)
It’s just, I mean, the death rate’s awful, and it’s going to stay, I’m afraid, high for a little while before it starts coming down. That was always what was predicted from the shape of this, as Chris has said. I think the information about the new variant doesn’t change that. In terms of the Israeli data, I think that was information from one of the organizations that organizes health in Israel, and I think there are four. And, it was some preliminary data that came out on the numbers. I think Israeli Health Ministry has said that they’re not entirely sure that those are the final data and they’re expecting the effects to increase. So, I think it’s very preliminary. I mean, these are preliminary information from a subset of people. They haven’t followed people out for long enough. We had a discussion with the Israeli advisors yesterday and they’re expecting to get more information over the next few weeks.(22:02) I think we’re going to have to monitor this very carefully. I mean, we’re going to have to keep looking at data and understanding the performance of vaccines in the real world, but the trial data, are very persuasive. These are highly effective vaccines and we would expect that to translate into what happens in real practice.
Boris Johnson: (22:20) Thanks very much. Let’s go to Dan Hewitt at ITV.
Dan Hewitt: (22:25)
Thank you, Prime Minister. Given what we know about this new variant, how likely is it that the current lockdown restrictions are going to last longer now, perhaps beyond the spring into the summer? And, are you considering tougher restrictions in the short-term and a question of if I may, to Sir Patrick Vallance how much of the South African variant do you estimate is already here and how likely is it that a strain similar to the South African or the Brazilian variant developing here?
Boris Johnson: (22:53)
Dan, we think this is the right package of measures to deal with the new variant, and we don’t want to change them. What we want is to see people enforcing them and to see people obeying them. That’s the crucial thing. It’s more important than anything. Any new piece of law that government produces, is public willingness to comply. I think we are seeing some signs of flattening in the data. We’re seeing some areas, particularly London and the Southeast, where numbers of infections are coming down. That’s very encouraging. We’re seeing, perhaps a stabilizing of hospital admissions, but the rates are still very high. So, when you think about unlocking, we really can’t begin to consider unlocking it, until we’re confident that the vaccination program is working, until we’re confident that we don’t have new variants or changes in the medical, in our understanding of the virus, that might affect our calculations, but-(24:03)… -standing of the virus that might affect our calculations. But I think most important thing is that we’ve got to be in a position where the rate of infection is not still so high, and it’s very high right now, so for unlocking just to lead to another big rebound. I think that would be the wrong thing, the wrong way to approach it. We’ve got to get those rates of infection down as well. It’s not just a question of rolling out the vaccine fast as that is, you can’t unlock whilst rates of infection are so very high. That’s obviously something we’re thinking about, and that’s why obeying this current lockdown, making it work, and as I say, the signs are that it is beginning to work, that’s why that’s so absolutely crucial to this effort.
Patrick: (24:49)
I think in terms of the numbers here, I think the latest data from PHE suggests that 44 of people have been detected with the South African variant. It may be a bit higher because of some uncertain results at the moment, but I think 71 is the upper limit of what they’ve found. But there will be cases here. There’ll be cases all over the world of these variants. The key thing is to identify, contact trace, and try and make sure that we contain.
(25:19)
Clearly, the lockdown that we’re currently in will have a large effect to keep this contained. But it’s important to recognize that there’s no evidence that the South African or Brazilian variants have transmission advantages over what is already here. They wouldn’t be expected to spread more quickly or take over. They may actually have less, we don’t know. I don’t think the fact that there are some cases here means this is going to take off and become the dominant variant. That’s not what you’d necessarily expect, because it doesn’t have a transmission advantage as far as we know over the current UK situation. But it’s obviously important that we restrict the entrance of more variants and that we identify and contact trace those that are here.(26:03) Chris, whether you want to add anything to that?
Chris: (26:04)
Well, I think the only thing to add is that the variant that we have here, the so-called B117 variant is now spreading quite widely in other parts of the world, including, for example, in Israel, which Patrick talked about. Variants do move around. They’ve come from the UK and they come into the UK. That’s, I’m afraid the nature of these things.
Boris Johnson: (26:25)
But Dan, just to go back on the point about when and under what circumstances you could conceivably consider beginning to relax, it remains our intention to look at where we are on the 15th. If we can get to that JCVI, first four cohorts done, we will look at the state of the pandemic, look at what is happening and make an assessment. Obviously, we’re making assessments every day on where we are. But currently, the rate of infection is forbiddingly high. I think we have to be realistic about that.
Boris Johnson: (26:56) Let’s go to Sam Coates of Sky.
Sam Coates: (27:00)
Prime minister, if the new dominant variant in this country is more dangerous than the first one, is it really right that there are more people out and about than during the first wave and that the rules are more lax? Is there not more that you could be doing to keep people safe, like you did last year? (27:16)
To Sir Patrick, you said that this new variant of coronavirus spreads more easily, but you haven’t concluded why. Do you have any early theories as to what’s going on? Any different competing possibilities?(27:29)
To Professor Whitty, with infections now going down, the R number below one, are we actually at or even perhaps past the peak of infections?
Boris Johnson: (27:39)
Sam, we are enforcing the law very stringently with increasing toughness. You’ll have seen what Priti had to say about fines. We will do it. We will enforce the law. We will make sure that people don’t engage in activities that would mean mass transmission of the disease or substantial transmission of the disease. But it depends on all of us. It depends on everybody watching, doing the right thing, avoiding transmission. That is far more powerful and far more effective in stopping the transmission of this virus than police action or new laws from the government. And that’s what it takes. The rules are very, very clear, stay at home unless you have a very, very good reason for not staying at home, protect the NHS, and save lives. I think the people of this country really understand that. All the evidence is that they comply with the measures when it’s necessary and we’ll get it done. As I said, they’re all signs that this is working, but it’s going to need continued resolve and a determination.
Patrick: (28:51)
In terms of the why it may be transmitting more readily, people are looking at this in laboratories all over the world for all of these variants. I think one thing that we don’t think is the cause is that people have a higher viral load and shed more virus. We don’t think that’s the case. It may be that it binds more solidly to the receptor for the virus and gets into cells more easily as a result of that. It may be it grows more readily in certain cell types. Those are things that people are looking at, and more information will come. But I think what we can conclude is there must be some mechanism by which it can actually, say, either bind or enter the cell somehow.
Chris: (29:37)
In terms of the infection rate, if you took the country as a whole and just averaged it, overall, the number of infections is broadly going down, but it’s at a very, very high level and it’s extremely precarious, and I really want to stress this. A very small change, and it could start taking off again from an extremely high base, and there are some areas of the country and some age groups in which it does not appear to be going down. For example, in people 20 to 30, the evidence is actually, it may still be increasing in some parts of the country. It is not solidly going down and it is very, very high. If it took off again, it would do so from a very high rate. That’s in terms of infections. (30:15)
In terms of hospitalizations, which are delayed because of course people get infected, they get ill, and then they go into hospital, again for the country as a whole, it’s broadly flat at the moment, still going up in some parts, particularly in the Northwestern parts of the Midlands, for example, going down in parts of the East of England, South, Southeast, and bits of London. But that peak is not yet definitely going down everywhere. (30:43)And then deaths, which is the last thing, that is going to be delayed further. I think the peak of deaths may well be still in the future. It depends which peak you’re talking about, but I’m just going to go back to the first point.(30:56)
This is high, very high and very precarious. If people start took this moment and said, “Right, that’s it. It’s over.” We would get back into very deep trouble, very fast. The NHS is absolutely at the top of what it can manage. If that happened again, we would be in really, really deep trouble.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会 更新情報
-
最新のアンケート
-
まだ何もありません
-
ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会のメンバーはこんなコミュニティにも参加しています
人気コミュニティランキング
- 1位
- mixi バスケ部
- 37832人
- 2位
- 酒好き
- 170657人
- 3位
- マイミク募集はここで。
- 89519人