ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会コミュの Boris Johnson provides coronavirus update

Boris Johnson: (01:50)
Good afternoon everybody, and thank you for joining the latest coronavirus press conference. Yesterday afternoon, I was briefed on the latest data that shows the virus spreading more rapidly in London, the Southeast and the East of England, than would be expected given the tough restrictions that are already in place. And I also received an explanation for why the virus is spreading more rapidly in these areas. It seems that the spread is now being driven by the new variant of the virus, which we spoke about earlier this week and learned about earlier this week.
(02:27)
Our Advisory Group on New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats, NERVTAG, has spent the last few days analyzing this new variant. There’s no evidence that it causes more severe illness or higher mortality, but it does appear to be passed on significantly more easily. NERVTAG’s early analysis suggests the new variant could increase the R by 0.4 or more. And although there’s considerable uncertainty, it may be up to 70% more transmissible than the original version of the disease. This is early data and it’s subject to review, but it’s the best that we have at the moment. And we have to act on information as we have it, because this is now spreading very fast.
(03:24)
The UK has by far the best genomic sequencing ability in the world, which means we’re better able to identify new strains like this than any other country. The chief medical officer last night submitted our findings so far to the World Health Organization and we’ll continue to be totally transparent with our global partners.
(03:45)
There’s still much that we don’t know. While we’re fairly certain the variant is transmitted more quickly, there’s no evidence to suggest it is more lethal or causes more severe illness. Equally, there’s no evidence to suggest the vaccine will be any less effective against the new variant. Our experts will continue their work to improve our understanding as fast as we can.
(04:12)
So we’re learning about it as we go, but we already know enough, more than enough to be sure that we must act now. So I met ministers on the COVID Operations Committee last night, and again, first thing this morning. Cabinet met at lunchtime to agree the following actions.
(04:34)
First, we will introduce new restrictions in the most effected areas, specifically those parts of London, the Southeast and the East of England, which are currently in tier three. These areas will enter a new tier four, which will be broadly equivalent to the national restrictions which were in place in England in November. That means residents in those areas must stay at home, apart from limited exemptions set out in law.
(05:04)
Non-essential retail, indoor gyms, and leisure facilities and personal care services must close. People must work from home if they can, but may travel to work if this is not possible, for example, in the construction and manufacturing sectors. People should not enter or leave tier four areas, and tier four residents must not stay overnight away from home. Individuals can only meet one person from another household in an outdoor public space.
(05:35)
Unlike the November national restrictions, communal worship can continue to take place in tier four areas. These measures will take effect from tomorrow morning. All tiers will continue to be regularly reviewed in line with the approach previously set out, with the next formal review taking place on the 30th of December.
(05:58)
Second, we’re issuing new advice on travel. Although the new variant is concentrated in tier four areas, it is nonetheless present at lower levels around the country. So we’re asking everyone in all tiers to stay local. People should carefully consider whether they need to travel abroad and they should follow the rules in their tier. Those in tier four areas will not be permitted to travel abroad, apart from limited exceptions such as for work purposes.
(06:32)
Third, we must, I’m afraid, look again at Christmas. And as prime minister, it’s my duty to take difficult decisions to do what is right to protect the people of this country. Given the early evidence we have on this new variant of the virus, the potential risk it poses, it is with a very heavy heart, I must tell you, we cannot continue with Christmas as planned. In England, those living in tier four areas should not mix with anyone outside their own household at Christmas, though support bubbles will remain in place for those of particular risk of loneliness or isolation.
(07:14)
Across the rest of the country, the Christmas rules allowing up to three households to meet, will now be limited to Christmas day only, rather than the five days as previously set out. As before, there will be no relaxation on the 31st of January, so people must not break the rules at New Year. They must not break the rules at New Year. It’s very, very important to emphasize that.
(07:42)
I know how much emotion people invest in this time of year, and how important it is, for instance, for grandparents to see the grandchildren, for families to be together. So I know how disappointing this will be. But we have said throughout this pandemic that we must and we will be guided by the science. When the science changes, we must change our response. And when the virus changes its method of attack, we must change our method of defense. And as your prime minister, I sincerely believe there is no alternative open to me. Without action, the evidence suggested infections would soar, hospitals would become overwhelmed, and many thousands more would lose their lives.
(08:40)
And I want to stress that we are not alone in this fight or in taking these types of decisions. Many of our European friends and neighbors are being forced to take similar action.
(08:53)
We’re working closely with the devolved administrations to protect people in every part of the UK. And of course there is now real, real hope that we will soon be rid of this virus. And that prospect is growing with every day that passes and every vaccine dose that is administered. As you know, the UK was the first country in the western world to start using a clinically approved vaccine. And so please, if the NHS contacts you, then get your vaccine and join the 350,000 people across the UK who have already had their first dose.
(09:35)
Yes, Christmas this year will be different, very different, but we must be realistic. We’re sacrificing the chance to see our loved ones this Christmas, so we have a better chance of protecting their lives so that we can see them at future Christmases. And sure as night follows day, we’ll beat back this virus, we’ll defeat it and reclaim our lives. But I’m going to hand over now to Patrick, who is going to go through some of the slides explaining this decision.

Patrick: (10:11)
Thank you very much, Prime Minister. May I have the first slide, please? This slide is the Office for National Statistics slide showing infections have risen again in recent weeks. So it shows the percentage of positive tests against time. And you can see from July to September, it was fairly flat. An increase occurred during September up to a peak, after which the lockdown led to a decrease in the numbers during November. And it is now on the increase again. So the lockdown brought the numbers down and now we’re seeing them rising again. Next slide, please.
(10:54) This shows the levels on the 29th of November up to the 13th of December. So on the left hand side-
(11:02)
Up to the 13th of December. So, On the left-hand side is the average cases in the last two weeks in November the 29th. And on the right-hand side is in mid-December. The darker the color, the higher the number of cases. And what you can see is, first of all, that there are some areas that have got very dark and here at South Wales and in the South East of England, and that the overall cases have increased by more than 50%. So, a substantial increase in numbers over the period of December. If I just concentrate now on the South East Eastern and London, we’ll see a picture which I think begins to link into the new virus variant. Next slide, please. So, this is hospital admissions per day in London, East of England, and the Southeast from NHS data from September through to now. You can see a gradual increase in the number of hospital admissions per day, and you can see a very sharp increase during December. This virus has taken off, it’s moving fast, and it’s leading inevitably to a sharp increase in hospital admissions. Next slide, please.
(12:22)
If we now look just at the areas that are moving into tier four as the Prime Minister has just said, which is areas in London, the Southeast and the East, and look at the number of cases, the case rate against time, what you can see is that the number of cases increased or the case rate increases dramatically. If you look at the dotted line, that’s for England as a whole, you can see case rate increasing to November, decreasing during lockdown, and increasing again. But if you look at the solid blue line, which is London, and the Southeast, and the East in tier four, you can see a rapid increase, a very sharp increase in rates over the period of December. So, we have a particularly fast moving problem with increased numbers in the area going to tier four, but a generalized increase across the country.
(13:19)
Next slide, please. I’d like to just spend a moment talking about the new variant. So, the new variant, and viruses mutate all the time, but the new variant contains 23 different changes. Many of them associated with changes in the protein that the virus makes. This is an unusually large number of variants. It’s also got variants in areas of the virus that are known to be associated with how the virus binds to cells and enters cells. So, there are some changes, which cause concern in terms of how the virus looks. But on top of that, there are three questions that need to be asked. Does the new variant transmit more readily? Does it make an increased chance of spread and growth? The second is, does it alter the course of the disease? Does it make people sicker? And the third is, does it alter the way that the immune system, the way the body responds to it, if it’s been previously infected or following the vaccine? I want to deal with the first question.
(14:28)
There are three different sources of evidence from genetic studies to frequency studies, to laboratory studies, all of which come together to suggest this virus has a significant substantial increase in transmissibility. And this is also highlighted in this graph, which shows the proportion of all the cases that were due to the new variant. So, the new variant was first thought to have occurred sometime in mid-September in London or Kent. And by the middle of November, about 28% or so of the cases in London and the Southeast and slightly lower in the East of England were due to the new variant. So, it had grown rapidly. By the week commencing the 9th of December, these figures were much higher. So, in London, over 60% of all the cases were the new variant. So, what this tells us is that this new variant not only moves fast, it is increased in terms of its ability to transmit, but it is becoming the dominant variant.
(15:36)
It is beating all the others in terms of transmission. So, this virus transmits and spreads fast. Does it alter the disease progress disease course? The answer seems to be no, as far as we can tell at the moment. There’s no evidence it causes a more severe disease, causes more hospitalization, causes more trouble than the other virus. So, it basically looks similar. Does it alter the immune response or is the immune response less able to recognize it? There are theoretical reasons to suspect that some of the changes might alter some of the immune responses, but there’s nothing that’s been seen to suggest that’s the case. And our working assumption at the moment from all of the scientists is that the vaccine response should be adequate for this virus.
(16:23)
Obviously it needs to be looked at going forward and we need to keep vigilant about this, but the big change, therefore is not the disease progress, not the immunity, but transmission. This virus spreads more easily and therefore more measures are needed to keep it under control. We absolutely need to stick to the basics of making sure that we reduce our contacts, reduce the ability for this virus to spread. And that’s the reason that tougher measures are required to keep this variant under control. Thank you very much.

Boris Johnson: (16:55)
Thanks very, very much, Patrick. Chris, is there anything you want to add to any of that? Well thank you very much then. Let’s go to questions from the public and then the media. First, Laura from Worthing.

Laura: (17:07)
Why are shielders still expected to work until three. As somebody who’s already lost two loved ones to COVID, this terrifies me. Thank you.

Boris Johnson: (17:19)
Well, Laura, your question why are shielders are still expected to work in tier three, those who are shielding those who are vulnerable, should of course take every step to protect themselves. And Laura, I hope very much that you will not be asked to work if you’re shielding. Chris, anything you want to add to that?

Chris Whitty: (17:43)
Well, I mean, I think first thing to say, as I’m really sorry to hear about your two relatives who died from this virus. I mean, it is a very dangerous virus for many people. The shielding patterns are actually being re-looked at, but the view about shielding is that in the first wave, shielding did many things that were useful, but also did many things that were actually actively harmful. And we have therefore changed the model of shielding since the first wave. And that includes people being able to get out more in many situations and also areas around work. But this is something which people are keeping on looking at to try and get the optimal balance between isolating people too much and isolating them enough from the virus.

Boris Johnson: (18:31)
Thanks very much. Let’s go to Mike from Cheshire. Mike from Cheshire asks, “In the daily update figures, people testing positive, number of tests, deaths, and so forth, could you also provide the number of people who’ve had the vaccine?” Well, Mike, thanks for that. And yes, as you’ve heard from me just now that the figure is that I’ve been given today is 350,000 have so far had their first dose. And we’ll make sure that we keep people regularly updated on the rollout of the vaccine. Let’s go to Laura Kuenssberg at the BBC.

Laura Kuenssberg: (19:10)
Thank you very much, Prime Minister. There were calls for you to drop the plans for Christmas last week just a few days ago, but on Wednesday you told me and our viewers, it would be inhuman to change the plans. And now that’s exactly what you’ve done. Aren’t the millions of people whose plans have just been torn up entitled to feel that you just left this too late and you’ve caused them more personal disruption and upset by doing so? And can I ask the medics, you’ve shared some of the analysis of this new variant, but you mentioned that Porton Down have been looking at this in the earlier press conference this week. Can you say if Porton Down have completed their assessments of it? And Professor Whitty, if someone is packing a bag right now, listening to or watching this, trying to leave the Southeast by midnight tonight, what should they do?

Boris Johnson: (19:57)
Well, Laura, let me, first of all, just say to everybody who’s made plans for Christmas, as I said earlier on everybody, who’s thought about it, all the care and love that’s gone into plans for Christmas. We, of course, bitterly regret the changes that are necessary, but alas, when the facts change, you have to change your approach. And the briefing that I had yesterday about this mutation of the virus, particularly about the speed of transmission was not possible to ignore. And as I say, when the virus changes its method of attack, we as a country have to change our method of defense. And that’s what we’re doing.

Chris Whitty: (20:41)
Shall I take the one that was addressed directly to me? And then Patrick may want to talk about Porton Down. I want to put some numbers out there, because I think that helps to explain why I’m going to give the answer that I’m going to give. But my short answer would be: please unpack it at this stage. And the reason for that is if you look at the Southeast, if you look at the East of England and look at London, there’s been a really dramatic increase in the proportion of the cases that we see that are… When we do on the screening tests, which are not absolutely exact, but pretty accurate, would imply that in the Southeast, 43% of the virus is now this new variant. In East of England, it’s 59%. And in London, 62%. The numbers may vary slightly, but those numbers are broadly right.
(21:28)
And those have gone up very, very fast over the last few weeks. So, this has really gone incredibly quickly. They are much lower in other areas of the country. And then when you look at the rates of increase in hospitalizations, there have been the numbers of people in hospital across the country. What you see is in the areas where this is very, very common, you’re seeing rates of increase of maybe 36% in East of England, 34% in London, and 28% in the Southeast. These are the areas which actually have a significant numbers of this new variant.
(22:03)
Significant numbers of this new variant. But if you go to, let’s say, the Northwest and the Northeast in Yorkshire, in these areas there has been no increase in hospitalizations. They’re managing to keep things down with tier three. And if you look at the rates of this new variant in those areas, you see they’re much lower. So for example, in Yorkshire and the Humber, around 5%. Now, again, exact numbers don’t matter. The point is that if you have a low amount of this variant, the rate of increase is held by the tiers. If you have a very high rate of this variant, then it is not held sufficiently by the tiers and it is going up rapidly.
(22:38)
And our big worry is essentially this is growing in two directions. It’s growing up in terms of the percentage where it is. So it’s getting a higher and higher proportion of the cases. And as Patrick said, the chance of someone gets infected of them having to go to hospital or dying at the end of it seem to be roughly the same as far as we can see so far as the previous variant. And if they were to go with this new variant unwittingly to an area that has a low prevalence and start this being seeded even more outside the high prevalence areas, that would be a significant risk to the area they went to.
(23:16)
So that is the reason we are really keen that people do not go from these areas, because otherwise we’ll not oly see it going up in the areas it’s already a problem, we’ll see it going out to other areas of the country, where it currently is not a problem. And because we understood this information in the backend of this week that we advised you really do have to act at this stage. Because otherwise, every area of the country will get this very quickly, and then none of them will be able to hold things with tier three and tier two elsewhere.

Boris Johnson: (23:47) Thanks very much, Laura.