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ウィスパリング同時通訳研究会コミュのPart 2 IMF Managing Director Press Briefing Oct 15

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Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you so much. I am looking at a question coming in from a Al‑Ahram newspaper. Are you there?

Question ‑ Good morning to all. Thank you for taking my questions. First of all, I want to congratulate Ms. Georgieva for receiving the Distinguished International Leadership Award from the Atlantic Council. You deserve the best.

For my question, as the World Bank and the IMF recent report shows that debts are rising in the emerging markets and low‑income countries and medium‑income countries, how do you think these economies can deal with such a serious issue? Thank you.

Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you very much. Mr. Chairman, would you like to talk about the questions relating to emerging markets, middle‑income countries, how they can deal with unprecedented debt?

Mr. Kganyago ‑ Yes, thank you very much. Emerging market countries are in different circumstances. Country circumstances differ. Getting into this crisis, there were countries which were highly indebted or were hitting rising debt levels. If you had the fiscal space, you had to use it during this crisis, but even countries that did not have the fiscal space found themselves having to spend more to respond to the pandemic.

Many countries, including emerging markets, took extraordinary measures to respond to the crisis because we were faced with extraordinary circumstances. These are measures, for lack of a better expression, for war‑time periods. They are not for peace‑time periods. But we have got to be alive to the fact that we are going to have to prepare ourselves to deal with the debt that becomes elevated as the economy begins to recover.

At some point or the other, we are going to have to withdraw these extraordinary measures so that we can actually deal with the challenge of debt. As the communique states, that withdrawing these extraordinary measures, it must be done in such a manner that it does not [hinder] recovery that we are seeing beginning to come through. Different countries would face different circumstances and each country would have to look at its circumstances.

What is also clear is that countries that are having access to markets, including my own, have been able to continue to tap the markets because the extraordinary measures taken in the advanced economies meant that there was abundant global liquidity, and that extended to contain the borrowing costs for various emerging market economies, but still these emerging market economies are not in the same position. There are low‑income countries that do not have access to markets, and for which the IMF and the World Bank and other multilateral institutions are the only source of finance. That is why it is important that we make sure that the IMF is not just well‑resourced, but that it is also capable of offering concessional facilities to the countries that do not have market access.

So, to sum it up, it was correct for countries to respond in the manner that they had responded to the crisis. That meant that spending has to be increased, and given that revenue was not easy to come by, borrowing had to be done. That meant that debt had to go up. At some stage, we are going to have to deal with the debt. As you deal with the debt, you are going to have to do fiscal consolidation. It is important that fiscal consolidation is done in a growth‑friendly manner.

Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you, Mr. Chairman. Kristalina, do you want to add anything?

Ms. Georgieva ‑ I want to say two things. One, thank you for your kind words. Two, we see the evidence of benefit of coordinated action. The fact that fiscal authorities and monetary authorities, especially in advanced economies, were swift to act in a synchronized manner meant that we saw massive injection of liquidity. What we fear may happen, collapse of economies, especially emerging market economies, developing countries, because of flight to safety, lack of access to finances, did not happen. So if you need evidence that when we act together there are positive spillovers, we find it here in this case of access to finance.

That being said, for countries that are experiencing severe difficulties where debt is not sustainable, acting decisively and early on debt restructuring may be the way to go. We have seen two middle‑income countries, Argentina and Ecuador, taking decisive action. What we would like to see is a more orderly process of restructuring and one in which both creditors and debtors can rely on sound foundation of principles and clear debt sustainability analysis. We will play our role in these processes.

Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you so much. I see a question coming from Japan. Can you come in? Please go ahead.

Question ‑ Thank you for taking my question. My question is about the COVID‑19 crisis and taking developments against it. Could you explain more in detail how important it is, and what do you think of Japan's contribution to the Initiative? Thank you.

Mr. Rice ‑ Managing Director.

Ms. Georgieva ‑ I want to wholeheartedly thank Japan for the highly responsible attitude to international cooperation in these times of crisis. Japan leads by example domestically by prioritizing investment in health and universal health coverage, also by acting decisively domestically to provide the necessary stimulus and monetary policy easing for the economy. But Japan also acts responsibly by supporting countries in need. Through the IMF, Japan has allowed us to increase our concessional financing resources, to provide debt relief to our poorest members, and today Japan also announced financial support, US$10 million, for a capacity development initiative to help countries build up strong institutions and policies to deal with the impact of the crisis and especially to help poor countries that need strong debt management so they can deal with the burden of debt themselves in that regard. I want to thank Japan once again for all it has done and for this recognition of capacity development as equally important as many if countries are to come out of this crisis stronger.

Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you very much, Kristalina. I think we have time for one last question. It is going to be live. It is Reuters. David Lawder, do you have a question for the Managing Director and the Chairman? Go ahead.

Question ‑ Yes. I would like both the Managing Director and the Chairman to respond to this one. Certainly you have called for countries here to not let up on the accelerator to maintain stimulus. In the U.S. we have seen kind of a gridlock here on another round of stimulus. The first one is basically running out. You see unemployment rates going up today. You are seeing infection rates going up today.

How important is it for you for the United States to do another round of stimulus? Will it be too late if it waits until, say, February? How important is it to accelerate that recovery that you just said could add $9 trillion to income? Thank you.

Ms. Georgieva ‑ Let me first recognize that decisive actions both on the fiscal front and the monetary front from the United States have not only helped the U.S. economy, they have had a positive spillover impact for the rest of the world. If we are to have today a floor under the world economy, the role of the U.S., given the size of the economy, the significance of the economy, and how much the U.S. leaned forward cannot be overstated.

We are, of course, keen to see that lifelines for businesses and for workers are sustained. This is our main message. Do not cut prematurely these lifelines.

Luckily for the U.S. it has fiscal space, and it also has monetary policy capacity. It is deploying both. The exact sequencing, how it is being done, of course, is for the U.S. authorities, but it has been an important, positive impulse. We would like to see how it would be continued. Again, I want to stress, the U.S. fortunately has the fiscal space to do it.

Mr. Rice ‑ Mr. Chairman, the question was also directed to you. I am going to give you the last word on both the U.S. and, more broadly, the issue of continuing policy support.

Mr. Kganyago ‑ Well, there is not much to add to what Kristalina just said; just to underscore that in particular the U.S. is in the position that many developed countries are in. Initially the U.S. has done what it could do under the circumstances, and they are at the zero lower bound. They embarked on unconventional monetary policy support to continue to support the economy. What is very clear now is that you do not go into a boxing match with one hand tied behind your back. So fiscal policy has to come to the parties here. A strong U.S. economy is actually good for the global economy. After the U.S. economy recovers from the pandemic, you will see the spillovers for the rest of the global economy, so it is important that that happens.

With respect to measures taken by other countries outside of the developed world, understand that most central banks deployed the tools that they have, including my own central bank. We acted with speed; we expect we stay to try and support our economies. But for many emerging market economies, including my own, fiscal space was not something that we had. We actually used the little fiscal space that we had to respond to the pandemic. Fortunately, monetary policy had the space, and the central bank was able to come to the party and support the economy. So different countries will face different circumstances. You would be lucky if you had both fiscal and monetary policy space because then you could deploy those at the same time, but for most countries, they have either one or the other.

Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you very much, Mr. Chairman. You get the last word on this your last press conference at the IMFC as Chairman. Thank you so much for everything. Thanks also to the Managing Director. Thanks to all of you for joining us today for this press conference. We are rushing off now to do the IMF Global Debate, so you will see Kristalina again there in about 20 minutes time if some of you are joining that. Thank you for joining us at these Annual Meetings. We will see you in the coming days. Goodbye.

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