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Gerry Rice, IMF Communications Director
Mr. Rice ‑ Hello, everyone. A very warm welcome to you, wherever you are in the world, to these Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank 2020, and to this press conference on behalf of the International Monetary and Financial Committee this morning. We look forward to your questions online and live via WebEx.
I believe the IMFC communique has been sent to you all. I hope you have received that and maybe had a chance to take a quick look. Anyway, we will be talking about that in this press conference. Very pleased that we have with us this morning the Chairman of the IMFC, Mr. Lesetja Kganyago, who is, of course, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa, and also the Managing Director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva.
I am going to ask the Chairman to make some brief remarks, followed by the Managing Director, and then we will turn to your questions. If you can keep them brief, we will take as many as we can. Mr. Chairman, over to you, please.
Mr. Kganyago ‑ Thank you very much, Gerry, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Six months ago when the IMFC last convened, we stressed that extraordinary economic policy actions would be necessary to deal with the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Today, we revisited these actions and agreed that conditions remain extraordinary and that exceptional policies are still called for. The pandemic is still spreading, while the recovery, as the communique notes, is partial, uneven, and marked by significant uncertainty. Emerging market and developing countries are particularly vulnerable right now, given the nature of the pandemic and some of the economic challenges and risks they uniquely face.
I want to remind everyone that the driving principle of our economic and monetary policies has been about protecting people. COVID‑19 has already taken the lives of more than 1 million people worldwide as the virus continues to spread.
The World Economic Outlook also highlights that the pandemic will reverse progress made since 1990 in reducing global poverty, as close to 90 million people could fall into extreme poverty this year. Protecting people, or what Kristalina has called "saving lives and livelihoods," is essential.
In our discussion, we recognize that countries' experiences are varied. In this regard, the IMFC endorsed continuing extraordinary policy responses that are tailored to country‑specific circumstances and needs.
Appropriately targeted fiscal measures are an important feature of saving people, not only because of the health risks associated with the disease, but because of the longer‑run social and economic costs that are associated with this pandemic. We also have more work ahead to make sure policies are targeted and effective, given heavier debt burdens that many countries are facing.
As you see from the communique, we commit to working together to help vulnerable countries achieve their financing needs and support their efforts to preserve debt sustainability.
The core features of the IMF's immediate crisis response that were initiated six months ago remain intact. Fortunately, debt relief has been extended another six months for the poorest countries.
We also agreed to support the IMF's efforts to expand concessional lending resources, facilitate timely sovereign debt resolution, and explore whether additional tools are needed to serve the membership as the crisis evolves.
More broadly, the IMFC underscored the importance of achieving strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth, and it pointed to the role that structural reforms can play in lifting growth, employment, and productivity.
Most importantly, we underlined today that international cooperation is essential so that research, development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID‑19 diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines is equitable and affordable.
Cooperation, when combined with the economic policies I have outlined, will help us overcome the pandemic and support global economic recovery.
Finally, let me also thank Kristalina and her team at the IMF. It has been a pleasure working with you as Chair of the IMFC. At this stage, Kristalina, let me hand over to you for any remarks that you might have.
Ms. Georgieva ‑ Thank you very much, Lesetja, for summarizing the key outcomes from the IMFC meeting we just completed. Before I touch on a few issues, let me first thank and congratulate you. You have served the IMFC and the international system extraordinarily well over the last three years, and we are in a better place because of the work you have done. You are a great colleague and, above all, you are a very dear friend. You may step out of the Chair but never out of this friendship, camaraderie borne in crisis.
We broadly agreed this week that this is a crisis like no other, and it calls for steps to enable a recovery like no other. It is my determination to take the encouragement from the IMFC for steadfast support to countries and people across our entire membership. I want to focus on three policy areas in particular.
First, continue with essential measures to protect lives and livelihoods. Stepping up vital health measures is imperative, as is well‑targeted fiscal and monetary support to households and to firms. So the IMF's message from these meetings is very clear: Avoid premature withdrawal of support. Pulling the plug too soon risks serious, self‑inflicted harm.
Two, build a more resilient and inclusive economy. Public investment, especially in green projects and digital infrastructure, can be a game changer. They have the potential to create millions of new jobs while boosting productivity and incomes.
Three, deal with debt. Global public debt is projected to reach a record high of 100 percent of GDP in 2021. This is partially because countries rightly need to boost spending to fight the crisis and to secure the recovery.
Addressing this issue over the medium term will be critical, but for many low‑income countries, urgent action is required now. In this context, I want to especially welcome two significant deliverables from the G20 and endorsed by the IMFC.
First, the agreement to create the common framework for handling sovereign debt treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative. This will be an important advancement in the international architecture for resolving sovereign debt matters in an orderly way.
As you may recall, the IMF has raised several issues with improving the architecture so we can have a fair, quick, relatively simple, relatively low‑cost resolution of unsustainable debt. This common framework is a significant step in the right direction.
The second deliverable is the extension by the G20 of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative for at least another six months from end of 2020, and for the option to extend it further, if necessary.
In addition, and again as the IMF has been emphasizing, further private sector participation is still needed, and it remains an outstanding issue.
Let me finish with a point that echoes Lesetja's comments. He noted that we need strong international cooperation. This is most urgent today for vaccine development and distribution. If we make fast progress everywhere, we could speed up the recovery, and we can add almost $9 trillion to global income by 2025. That in turn could help narrow the income gap between richer and poorer nations. The value of cooperation right now cannot possibly be overstated. Together. Thank you.
Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you very much, Managing Director and Mr. Chairman. Let us get straight to the questions I am going to take one online as you prepare to come on WebEx and give us your questions live.
The first one is from China Business News. It is a question about the second wave of the pandemic, how much further damage can it do, what kind of global cooperation is needed to address a potential second wave of the pandemic. Mr. Chairman, that might be one for you.
Mr. Kganyago ‑ Thank you very much, Gerry. Firstly, I think we need to work from the premise that the virus does not know any borders. The virus knows no borders. Our response to the virus has got to be coordinated. Whether it is in the form of a therapeutic or it is in the form of a vaccine, we actually need to cooperate as a global community.
Additional global cooperation is more important because the manner in which countries have responded to the pandemic was to do national lockdowns. What comes from the national lockdowns is that none of us, no individual country, can survive without international cooperation. It has become very clear we have seen that the [inaudible] contraction adjusted for global economic growth for this year. The life blood of the global economy is actually international trade, and once we had these lockdowns and international trade, basically for all in intents and purposes ceased, the global economy was in serious trouble. It should become very clear to us that different countries are in different positions in terms of resources and that lots of countries will still need access to IMF resources.
So having the IMF at the center of the global financial safety net has become even more important than it has been in the past. Because of that, cooperation in making sure that the IMF is adequately resourced so that it should not just respond to the current crisis but that it actually looks after those countries that are vulnerable, that are poor, that do not have access to resources, that the only source of resources would be the IMF, it just makes international cooperation so much more important than it has been in the past. Back to you, Gerry.
Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you so much. That question was from China Business News. I think they may be with us on WebEx. Are you there? Would you have another question?
Question ‑ Yes, I have another question for the Managing Director. So China is the only major economy you are forecasting to have a positive economic growth this year, and what does China's recovery means for the global recovery now, and what role can China play in global cooperation? Thank you.
Ms. Georgieva ‑ Thank you very much for your question. We have upgraded our projections for China's growth for this year to 1.9 percent. This is almost a percentage point higher than we had a couple of months earlier.
This is on the basis of two very important actions China has taken. One, to contain the pandemic, very decisive health measures; and, two, to provide a positive stimulus for the economy in terms of fiscal stimulus and in terms of monetary policy. China continues to boost the support to the economy. Of course, we see the outcome in the performance of the Chinese economy and our projections for the future. For next year we project 8.2 percent growth in China [NB: This figure was corrected after delivery from 8.8 percent as stated during the press conference].
When we look at the more disaggregated data, the manufacturing sector is doing better, where services, especially contact services, are still more constrained. What does it mean for the region and for the world? This is a positive impulse for the world economy, and it is particularly important for three types of countries. For countries that export metals and other commodities, demand from China has been a much‑needed relief, with commodity prices now going up.
Secondly, for countries that are connected to the Chinese economy through global‑value chains, demand from China is an engine for growth there.
Thirdly, in terms of building confidence that we can overcome the pandemic, not only the domestic measures but also the fact that China has joined the international efforts to have a vaccine, I cannot stress enough how important it is to boost the confidence that we together can get out of this crisis.
Until we have a durable exit from the health crisis everywhere, the recovery will remain uneven, uncertain, and obviously we want to see that in the rearview mirror as soon as possible.
Gerry Rice, IMF Communications Director
Mr. Rice ‑ Hello, everyone. A very warm welcome to you, wherever you are in the world, to these Annual Meetings of the IMF and World Bank 2020, and to this press conference on behalf of the International Monetary and Financial Committee this morning. We look forward to your questions online and live via WebEx.
I believe the IMFC communique has been sent to you all. I hope you have received that and maybe had a chance to take a quick look. Anyway, we will be talking about that in this press conference. Very pleased that we have with us this morning the Chairman of the IMFC, Mr. Lesetja Kganyago, who is, of course, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of South Africa, and also the Managing Director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva.
I am going to ask the Chairman to make some brief remarks, followed by the Managing Director, and then we will turn to your questions. If you can keep them brief, we will take as many as we can. Mr. Chairman, over to you, please.
Mr. Kganyago ‑ Thank you very much, Gerry, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us. Six months ago when the IMFC last convened, we stressed that extraordinary economic policy actions would be necessary to deal with the COVID‑19 pandemic.
Today, we revisited these actions and agreed that conditions remain extraordinary and that exceptional policies are still called for. The pandemic is still spreading, while the recovery, as the communique notes, is partial, uneven, and marked by significant uncertainty. Emerging market and developing countries are particularly vulnerable right now, given the nature of the pandemic and some of the economic challenges and risks they uniquely face.
I want to remind everyone that the driving principle of our economic and monetary policies has been about protecting people. COVID‑19 has already taken the lives of more than 1 million people worldwide as the virus continues to spread.
The World Economic Outlook also highlights that the pandemic will reverse progress made since 1990 in reducing global poverty, as close to 90 million people could fall into extreme poverty this year. Protecting people, or what Kristalina has called "saving lives and livelihoods," is essential.
In our discussion, we recognize that countries' experiences are varied. In this regard, the IMFC endorsed continuing extraordinary policy responses that are tailored to country‑specific circumstances and needs.
Appropriately targeted fiscal measures are an important feature of saving people, not only because of the health risks associated with the disease, but because of the longer‑run social and economic costs that are associated with this pandemic. We also have more work ahead to make sure policies are targeted and effective, given heavier debt burdens that many countries are facing.
As you see from the communique, we commit to working together to help vulnerable countries achieve their financing needs and support their efforts to preserve debt sustainability.
The core features of the IMF's immediate crisis response that were initiated six months ago remain intact. Fortunately, debt relief has been extended another six months for the poorest countries.
We also agreed to support the IMF's efforts to expand concessional lending resources, facilitate timely sovereign debt resolution, and explore whether additional tools are needed to serve the membership as the crisis evolves.
More broadly, the IMFC underscored the importance of achieving strong, sustainable, balanced, and inclusive growth, and it pointed to the role that structural reforms can play in lifting growth, employment, and productivity.
Most importantly, we underlined today that international cooperation is essential so that research, development, manufacturing, and distribution of COVID‑19 diagnostics, therapeutics, and vaccines is equitable and affordable.
Cooperation, when combined with the economic policies I have outlined, will help us overcome the pandemic and support global economic recovery.
Finally, let me also thank Kristalina and her team at the IMF. It has been a pleasure working with you as Chair of the IMFC. At this stage, Kristalina, let me hand over to you for any remarks that you might have.
Ms. Georgieva ‑ Thank you very much, Lesetja, for summarizing the key outcomes from the IMFC meeting we just completed. Before I touch on a few issues, let me first thank and congratulate you. You have served the IMFC and the international system extraordinarily well over the last three years, and we are in a better place because of the work you have done. You are a great colleague and, above all, you are a very dear friend. You may step out of the Chair but never out of this friendship, camaraderie borne in crisis.
We broadly agreed this week that this is a crisis like no other, and it calls for steps to enable a recovery like no other. It is my determination to take the encouragement from the IMFC for steadfast support to countries and people across our entire membership. I want to focus on three policy areas in particular.
First, continue with essential measures to protect lives and livelihoods. Stepping up vital health measures is imperative, as is well‑targeted fiscal and monetary support to households and to firms. So the IMF's message from these meetings is very clear: Avoid premature withdrawal of support. Pulling the plug too soon risks serious, self‑inflicted harm.
Two, build a more resilient and inclusive economy. Public investment, especially in green projects and digital infrastructure, can be a game changer. They have the potential to create millions of new jobs while boosting productivity and incomes.
Three, deal with debt. Global public debt is projected to reach a record high of 100 percent of GDP in 2021. This is partially because countries rightly need to boost spending to fight the crisis and to secure the recovery.
Addressing this issue over the medium term will be critical, but for many low‑income countries, urgent action is required now. In this context, I want to especially welcome two significant deliverables from the G20 and endorsed by the IMFC.
First, the agreement to create the common framework for handling sovereign debt treatments beyond the Debt Service Suspension Initiative. This will be an important advancement in the international architecture for resolving sovereign debt matters in an orderly way.
As you may recall, the IMF has raised several issues with improving the architecture so we can have a fair, quick, relatively simple, relatively low‑cost resolution of unsustainable debt. This common framework is a significant step in the right direction.
The second deliverable is the extension by the G20 of the Debt Service Suspension Initiative for at least another six months from end of 2020, and for the option to extend it further, if necessary.
In addition, and again as the IMF has been emphasizing, further private sector participation is still needed, and it remains an outstanding issue.
Let me finish with a point that echoes Lesetja's comments. He noted that we need strong international cooperation. This is most urgent today for vaccine development and distribution. If we make fast progress everywhere, we could speed up the recovery, and we can add almost $9 trillion to global income by 2025. That in turn could help narrow the income gap between richer and poorer nations. The value of cooperation right now cannot possibly be overstated. Together. Thank you.
Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you very much, Managing Director and Mr. Chairman. Let us get straight to the questions I am going to take one online as you prepare to come on WebEx and give us your questions live.
The first one is from China Business News. It is a question about the second wave of the pandemic, how much further damage can it do, what kind of global cooperation is needed to address a potential second wave of the pandemic. Mr. Chairman, that might be one for you.
Mr. Kganyago ‑ Thank you very much, Gerry. Firstly, I think we need to work from the premise that the virus does not know any borders. The virus knows no borders. Our response to the virus has got to be coordinated. Whether it is in the form of a therapeutic or it is in the form of a vaccine, we actually need to cooperate as a global community.
Additional global cooperation is more important because the manner in which countries have responded to the pandemic was to do national lockdowns. What comes from the national lockdowns is that none of us, no individual country, can survive without international cooperation. It has become very clear we have seen that the [inaudible] contraction adjusted for global economic growth for this year. The life blood of the global economy is actually international trade, and once we had these lockdowns and international trade, basically for all in intents and purposes ceased, the global economy was in serious trouble. It should become very clear to us that different countries are in different positions in terms of resources and that lots of countries will still need access to IMF resources.
So having the IMF at the center of the global financial safety net has become even more important than it has been in the past. Because of that, cooperation in making sure that the IMF is adequately resourced so that it should not just respond to the current crisis but that it actually looks after those countries that are vulnerable, that are poor, that do not have access to resources, that the only source of resources would be the IMF, it just makes international cooperation so much more important than it has been in the past. Back to you, Gerry.
Mr. Rice ‑ Thank you so much. That question was from China Business News. I think they may be with us on WebEx. Are you there? Would you have another question?
Question ‑ Yes, I have another question for the Managing Director. So China is the only major economy you are forecasting to have a positive economic growth this year, and what does China's recovery means for the global recovery now, and what role can China play in global cooperation? Thank you.
Ms. Georgieva ‑ Thank you very much for your question. We have upgraded our projections for China's growth for this year to 1.9 percent. This is almost a percentage point higher than we had a couple of months earlier.
This is on the basis of two very important actions China has taken. One, to contain the pandemic, very decisive health measures; and, two, to provide a positive stimulus for the economy in terms of fiscal stimulus and in terms of monetary policy. China continues to boost the support to the economy. Of course, we see the outcome in the performance of the Chinese economy and our projections for the future. For next year we project 8.2 percent growth in China [NB: This figure was corrected after delivery from 8.8 percent as stated during the press conference].
When we look at the more disaggregated data, the manufacturing sector is doing better, where services, especially contact services, are still more constrained. What does it mean for the region and for the world? This is a positive impulse for the world economy, and it is particularly important for three types of countries. For countries that export metals and other commodities, demand from China has been a much‑needed relief, with commodity prices now going up.
Secondly, for countries that are connected to the Chinese economy through global‑value chains, demand from China is an engine for growth there.
Thirdly, in terms of building confidence that we can overcome the pandemic, not only the domestic measures but also the fact that China has joined the international efforts to have a vaccine, I cannot stress enough how important it is to boost the confidence that we together can get out of this crisis.
Until we have a durable exit from the health crisis everywhere, the recovery will remain uneven, uncertain, and obviously we want to see that in the rearview mirror as soon as possible.
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