ログインしてさらにmixiを楽しもう

コメントを投稿して情報交換!
更新通知を受け取って、最新情報をゲット!

ニュース資料集コミュの【中国】周小川 論文「国際金融システムの改革」

  • mixiチェック
  • このエントリーをはてなブックマークに追加
■目次TOP:http://mixi.jp/view_bbs.pl?id=40831184&comm_id=3344585
■【中国】_目次:http://mixi.jp/view_bbs.pl?id=40791675&comm_id=3344585


中国人民銀行
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/detail.asp?col=6500&id=178
Home>Speeches


Reform the International Monetary System
Zhou Xiaochuan

国際金融システムの改革
周小川

The outbreak of the current crisis and its spillover in the world have confronted us with a long-existing but still unanswered question,i.e., what kind of international reserve currency do we need to secure global financial stability and facilitate world economic growth, which was one of the purposes for establishing the IMF? There were various institutional arrangements in an attempt to find a solution, including the Silver Standard, the Gold Standard, the Gold Exchange Standard and the Bretton Woods system. The above question, however, as the ongoing financial crisis demonstrates, is far from being solved, and has become even more severe due to the inherent weaknesses of the current international monetary system.

Theoretically, an international reserve currency should first be anchored to a stable benchmark and issued according to a clear set of rules, therefore to ensure orderly supply; second, its supply should be flexible enough to allow timely adjustment according to the changing demand; third, such adjustments should be disconnected from economic conditions and sovereign interests of any single country. The acceptance of credit-based national currencies as major international reserve currencies, as is the case in the current system, is a rare special case in history. The crisis again calls for creative reform of the existing international monetary system towards an international reserve currency with a stable value, rule-based issuance and manageable supply, so as to achieve the objective of safeguarding global economic and financial stability.

I. The outbreak of the crisis and its spillover to the entire world reflect the inherent vulnerabilities and systemic risks in the existing international monetary system.

Issuing countries of reserve currencies are constantly confronted with the dilemma between achieving their domestic monetary policy goals and meeting other countries’ demand for reserve currencies. On the one hand,the monetary authorities cannot simply focus on domestic goals without carrying out their international responsibilities;on the other hand,they cannot pursue different domestic and international objectives at the same time. They may either fail to adequately meet the demand of a growing global economy for liquidity as they try to ease inflation pressures at home, or create excess liquidity in the global markets by overly stimulating domestic demand. The Triffin Dilemma, i.e., the issuing countries of reserve currencies cannot maintain the value of the reserve currencies while providing liquidity to the world, still exists.

When a national currency is used in pricing primary commodities, trade settlements and is adopted as a reserve currency globally, efforts of the monetary authority issuing such a currency to address its economic imbalances by adjusting exchange rate would be made in vain, as its currency serves as a benchmark for many other currencies. While benefiting from a widely accepted reserve currency, the globalization also suffers from the flaws of such a system. The frequency and increasing intensity of financial crises following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system suggests the costs of such a system to the world may have exceeded its benefits. The price is becoming increasingly higher, not only for the users, but also for the issuers of the reserve currencies. Although crisis may not necessarily be an intended result of the issuing authorities, it is an inevitable outcome of the institutional flaws.

II. The desirable goal of reforming the international monetary system, therefore, is to create an international reserve currency that is disconnected from individual nations and is able to remain stable in the long run, thus removing the inherent deficiencies caused by using credit-based national currencies.

1. Though the super-sovereign reserve currency has long since been proposed, yet no substantive progress has been achieved to date. Back in the 1940s, Keynes had already proposed to introduce an international currency unit named “Bancor”, based on the value of 30 representative commodities. Unfortunately, the proposal was not accepted. The collapse of the Bretton Woods system, which was based on the White approach, indicates that the Keynesian approach may have been more farsighted. The IMF also created the SDR in 1969, when the defects of the Bretton Woods system initially emerged, to mitigate the inherent risks sovereign reserve currencies caused. Yet, the role of the SDR has not been put into full play due to limitations on its allocation and the scope of its uses. However, it serves as the light in the tunnel for the reform of the international monetary system.

2. A super-sovereign reserve currency not only eliminates the inherent risks of credit-based sovereign currency, but also makes it possible to manage global liquidity. A super-sovereign reserve currency managed by a global institution could be used to both create and control the global liquidity. And when a country’s currency is no longer used as the yardstick for global trade and as the benchmark for other currencies, the exchange rate policy of the country would be far more effective in adjusting economic imbalances. This will significantly reduce the risks of a future crisis and enhance crisis management capability.

III. The reform should be guided by a grand vision and begin with specific deliverables. It should be a gradual process that yields win-win results for all

The reestablishment of a new and widely accepted reserve currency with a stable valuation benchmark may take a long time. The creation of an international currency unit, based on the Keynesian proposal, is a bold initiative that requires extraordinary political vision and courage. In the short run, the international community, particularly the IMF, should at least recognize and face up to the risks resulting from the existing system, conduct regular monitoring and assessment and issue timely early warnings.

Special consideration should be given to giving the SDR a greater role. The SDR has the features and potential to act as a super-sovereign reserve currency. Moreover, an increase in SDR allocation would help the Fund address its resources problem and the difficulties in the voice and representation reform. Therefore, efforts should be made to push forward a SDR allocation. This will require political cooperation among member countries. Specifically, the Fourth Amendment to the Articles of Agreement and relevant resolution on SDR allocation proposed in 1997 should be approved as soon as possible so that members joined the Fund after 1981 could also share the benefits of the SDR. On the basis of this, considerations could be given to further increase SDR allocation.

The scope of using the SDR should be broadened, so as to enable it to fully satisfy the member countries’ demand for a reserve currency.

Set up a settlement system between the SDR and other currencies. Therefore, the SDR, which is now only used between governments and international institutions, could become a widely accepted means of payment in international trade and financial transactions.
Actively promote the use of the SDR in international trade, commodities pricing, investment and corporate book-keeping. This will help enhance the role of the SDR, and will effectively reduce the fluctuation of prices of assets denominated in national currencies and related risks.
Create financial assets denominated in the SDR to increase its appeal. The introduction of SDR-denominated securities, which is being studied by the IMF, will be a good start.
Further improve the valuation and allocation of the SDR. The basket of currencies forming the basis for SDR valuation should be expanded to include currencies of all major economies, and the GDP may also be included as a weight. The allocation of the SDR can be shifted from a purely calculation-based system to a system backed by real assets, such as a reserve pool, to further boost market confidence in its value.

IV. Entrusting part of the member countries’ reserve to the centralized management of the IMF will not only enhance the international community’s ability to address the crisis and maintain the stability of the international monetary and financial system, but also significantly strengthen the role of the SDR.

1. Compared with separate management of reserves by individual countries, the centralized management of part of the global reserve by a trustworthy international institution with a reasonable return to encourage participation will be more effective in deterring speculation and stabilizing financial markets. The participating countries can also save some reserve for domestic development and economic growth. With its universal membership, its unique mandate of maintaining monetary and financial stability, and as an international “supervisor” on the macroeconomic policies of its member countries, the IMF, equipped with its expertise, is endowed with a natural advantage to act as the manager of its member countries’ reserves.

2. The centralized management of its member countries’ reserves by the Fund will be an effective measure to promote a greater role of the SDR as a reserve currency. To achieve this, the IMF can set up an open-ended SDR-denominated fund based on the market practice, allowing subscription and redemption in the existing reserve currencies by various investors as desired. This arrangement will not only promote the development of SDR-denominated assets, but will also partially allow management of the liquidity in the form of the existing reserve currencies. It can even lay a foundation for increasing SDR allocation to gradually replace existing reserve currencies with the SDR.

Submit Date:2009-3-23 17:35:00

※「Word」ファイルをダウンロードできます。
http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/showaccdoc.asp?col=6500&id=181

 ◇ ◇ ◇

<解説 その1>
http://amesei.exblog.jp/9511898/
2009年 03月 26日
米国債の危機??(10年債利回り)と周小川の「SDR構想」
出典:WSJ.com

上のチャートは3ヶ月で示した、アメリカ国債(10年債)の利回り。利回りと価格は逆相関の関係にあり、利回りが高い数値を示していることは、国債価格が下落していることを意味する。

3月17日に一気に利回りが下がっているが、これはFRBのバーナンキ議長が、FRBによる米国債買い入れの意思を表明したからである。しかし、そのアナウンス効果もすぐに持たなくなり、また利回りが上昇傾向になっていることがわかるであろう。

今のレベルは2000年1月の6.75周辺の数値に比べれば確かに低いものといえる。しかし、現在はアメリカ国債の増発が言われている時期であり、ドルの信認と併せて微妙な時期にあるのであり、利回り(イールド)が上昇することは米国財務省にとって歓迎すべきことではないだろう。

====
英国債の入札が未達になったということです。7年ぶりだそうですので、7年前にもなったということのようですが・・・。

Public finance fears hit gilts auction
By David Oakley, Capital Markets Correspondent

Published: March 25 2009 12:32 | Last updated: March 25 2009 15:43

A UK government bond auction failed for the first time in seven years on Wednesday as investors refused to buy the securities because of worries over the country’s deteriorating public finances.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b347e714-1933-11de-9d34-0000779fd2ac.html
====

ガイトナー財務長官が、中国の周小川・中国人民銀行総裁のSDR活用論に反論していた。
SDR(IMFの特別引き出し権)を国際貿易の決済単位として用いるという周総裁の提案は、進歩主義系のエコノミストのスティグリッツも支持していたと思う。これは、古くはブレトンウッズ会議のケインズ卿の提案した、バンコールと同じ考えだろう。

ビルダーバーグのガイトナーは本音ではこの構想に賛成していると思うが、立場上はいえないといったところか。SDR活用論は、ピーターソン国際経済研究所のテッド・トルーマン研究員も提唱していた。ピーターソン研究所には、G2戦略を提唱した、フレッド・バーグステンも所属しているので、政策サークルでは一定の賛同を得られている考え方なのだろうと思う。

ドル体制の維持がプランAだとすれば、SDR活用による事実上の「世界決済単位」の導入や、国連の世界経済理事会(スティグリッツの提唱)の設立などは、プランBというところだろう。まるで、HGウェルズの世界だが。

しかし、肝心なことに踏み込みたくないのがホンネのため、儀式的なロンドンではG20会合をやるだけ、のようである。


(引用開始)

US willing to look at China currency proposal
By Krishna Guha in Washington and Peter Garnham in London

Published: March 25 2009 14:19 | Last updated: March 25 2009 14:19

The US is willing to explore China’s proposal to give a synthetic global currency a larger role in the international financial system, Tim Geithner, US Treasury secretary, said on Wednesday.

But Mr Geithner said any change would be evolutionary and that the synthetic currency, called the International Monetary Fund Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), would not replace the dollar.

He said there would be no ”global monetary union” and the future of the dollar in the world system would rest on the US government’s ability to overcome the financial crisis and then put its fiscal house in order.

The comments came after calls by Zhou Xiaochuan, China’s central bank governor, for a new global currency as an alternative to the dollar.

China’s idea of a new currency would in effect expand the use of the SDR, a currency devised by the IMF in 1969 that was initially pegged to the dollar but is now based on the value of four different currencies: the dollar, yen, euro and pound.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/e4c56948-1946-11de-9d34-0000779fd2ac.html
(引用終わり)

ところで、周小川・中国人民銀行総裁は、BISの常任理事会のメンバーである。白川日銀総裁もメンバーなのであるが。

BIS(国際決済銀行)の2008年年次総会の報告を行うプレスリリースを見ると興味深い記述がある。

(引用開始)

The 78th Annual Report was presented at the Bank’s Annual General Meeting held today in Basel, Switzerland, and chaired by Jean-Pierre Roth, Chairman of the BIS Board of Directors. Representatives from more than 130 central banks and international institutions attended.

The Bank’s balance sheet grew to SDR 311 billion (USD 511 billion) at end-March 2008. Official foreign currency reserves deposited with the BIS rose from SDR 222 billion to SDR 236 billion (USD 388 billion). This corresponds to a year-on-year increase of around 6%. The BIS’s 55 shareholding central banks will receive a dividend of SDR 265, around 4% higher than that for the previous financial year.

http://www.bis.org/press/p080630.htm?format=print
(引用終わり)

というように、BISの共通通貨単位で、このIMFのSDRを使用していたのである。

これについてはBISの2003年の報道文にこのようにある。

(貼り付け開始)

SDR to replace gold franc at the BIS
10 March 2003


The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) today announced that the Special Drawing Right (SDR) would replace the gold franc as the Bank's unit of account as from 1 April 2003. This decision was made today at an Extraordinary General Meeting of member central banks of the BIS. The Bank also decided to take steps towards modernising its financial accounting and reporting practices.


Used by a number of international organisations, the SDR is an international unit of account defined by the IMF and based on a basket of major currencies. The gold franc has served as the unit of account for the BIS since its establishment in 1930.


Commenting on the change, Andrew Crockett, General Manager of the BIS, said: "I welcome the introduction of the SDR. Along with a strengthened accounting framework, it will assist in managing the Bank's operations and economic capital more efficiently and enhance the transparency of its accounts."


Mr Crockett added that the changes would not affect the fundamental nature of the BIS's banking activities and would not have any implication for its policy towards its holdings of gold.

http://www.bis.org/press/p030311d.htm
(貼り付け終わり)


このときのBISの専務理事は、アンドリュー・クロケットというイギリス人バンカーで、後にJPモルガンチェースのボードメンバーとなっているが、もともとは1972年のIMFのスタッフメンバーとなっていた人物であった。金融安定化フォーラム(FSF)の議長も務めたことがあるようだ。

SDRが2003年にゴールド・フラン(金フラン)という1930年代から続いてきたBISの共通単位に取って代わっていたということは重要な点であろう。

周小川・中国人民銀行総裁が書いた政策論文は、中国政府というよりは、BISのセントラル・バンカーの意向を踏まえているのではないかと思う。

by japanhandlers2005 | 2009-03-26 00:39 | Trackback | Comments(12)

コメント(0)

mixiユーザー
ログインしてコメントしよう!

ニュース資料集 更新情報

ニュース資料集のメンバーはこんなコミュニティにも参加しています

星印の数は、共通して参加しているメンバーが多いほど増えます。

人気コミュニティランキング