Fujimaki, Former Soros Adviser, Forecasts Yen to Decline to 140
2006-06-14 21:10 (New York)
By Chris Cooper and Bernard Lo
June 15 (Bloomberg) -- The yen may drop as far as 140 to the
dollar by December, the weakest in eight years, as the gap
between U.S. and Japanese interest rates may widen, said Takeshi
Fujimaki, a former adviser to billionaire investor George Soros.
Fujimaki is sticking to forecasts for a weaker yen on
prospects the Federal Reserve will add to 16 straight rate
increases. Japan's currency gained 3.3 percent since Nov. 15,
when he said he expected it to weaken to 150.
His view contrasts with a Bloomberg survey of economists in
April that predicted a 4.6 percent appreciation by year-end, as
the Bank of Japan moves toward lifting borrowing costs from zero
percent.
The yen traded at 115.04 per dollar as of 10:06 a.m. in
Tokyo, compared with 115.06 late yesterday in New York. The
currency fell to 121.40 on Dec. 5, the weakest since March 21,
2003. The last time it traded at 140 was on Aug. 31, 1998.
Fed policy makers will lift the target overnight lending
rate between banks to 5.25 percent this month, said Fujimaki,
president of Fujimaki Japan, an investment advisory company.
In November, he said the rate would rise to 5 percent by the
end of this year. He also predicted the Bank of Japan would
increase interest rates a quarter point in the same period.
Sell JGBs
Fujimaki recommends investors sell Japanese government bonds,
known as JGBs, and invest in assets such as dollar-denominated
money market funds.
``I'm very bearish on JGBs,'' he said. ``The economy will
recover, and the normal level that JGB yields will go back to is
6 percent.''
The yield on the benchmark 1.9 percent bond due June 2016
rose 2.5 basis points to 1.795 percent, according to Japan Bond
Trading Co., the nation's largest debt broker. Ten-year yields
yesterday fell to 1.745 percent, the lowest since March 29.
The central bank in March ended a five-year policy of
pumping as much as 35 trillion yen ($304 billion) into the
banking system, a precursor to raising rates, as consumer prices
excluding food rose for a third month. A report this week also
showed prices paid by manufacturers rose at the fastest pace in
25 years.
Japanese government bonds were the worst performers among 26
indexes of sovereign debt last year, returning just 0.7 percent
including interest payments, according to the European Federation
of Financial Analysts' Societies.
The difference between U.S. and Japanese interest rates
widened to a five-year high of 5 percent this month after the Fed
increased its benchmark lending level in May.
Seven-Year High
Ten-year Japanese government bond yields, which move in the
opposite direction to prices, rose to an almost seven-year high
last month on speculation the central bank will raise interest
rates as early as next month as a seven-year bout of deflation
ended.
Nine of 15 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect the
central bank Governor Toshihiko Fukui and policy members to raise
the key overnight lending rate as early as July.
Fujimaki also recommended Japanese investors buy real estate
and equities.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average is up 27 percent in the past
year to 14,516.
Japan's three largest cities in 2005 had the first gain in
commercial land prices in 15 years, adding to signs the property
market is rebounding in the world's second-biggest economy.
The average price of commercial land in Tokyo, Osaka and
Nagoya urban areas gained 1 percent in 2005, the Ministry of Land,
Infrastructure and Transport said. Land prices nationwide fell by
the smallest amount since 1991.
Fujimaki's agreement with Soros Fund Management, once the
world's biggest hedge fund group, ended in October 2000. He has
since written a book and lectured at Waseda University and
Hitotsubashi University in Tokyo.
--With reporting by Mariko Oi in Tokyo. Editor: Barrett (bgt)