Many people do believe that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, though, and
there seems to be a mad rush to prove it. But there is a far simpler explanation,
which is self-evident when you think about it. If Iran has the capability to enrich
uranium to weapons-grade, and has a significant stockpile of low enriched uranium,
it could further enrich the stockpile and produce nuclear weapons on fairly short
notice. This is sometimes referred to as “the Japan option,” although Brazil also
has this capability. Having a Japan option is a deterrence in itself. Just as no one
needs to actually use nuclear weapons to realize their political leverage, if you’re
always six months away from having a nuclear weapon, you already have a
significant deterrent capability. Case in point: a few months ago, the Japanese
parliament debated whether to develop nuclear weapons in response to
threatening gestures made by North Korea. I’m sure the Japanese debate
was heard loud and clear in Pyongyang.
Considering what happened to its neighbors in Iraq and Afghanistan, Iran’s
desire for a nuclear Japan option is understandable. We shouldn’t automatically
side with the “international community” against Iran. We should balance the
goal of nuclear nonproliferation against the legitimate concerns of the Iranian
people. These include both security and technological development. The Japan
option may be safer than we think.